threegenerationsleft

human activity and the destruction of the planet


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What is Three Generations Left?

Three Generations Left?  Human Activity and the Destruction of the Planet” is a book written by Dr Christine Parkinson and published in October 2016 by New Generation Publishing.  The book describes how a whole host of factors are all having the effect of increasing carbon emissions, which will ultimately lead to the destruction of the planet.  The three generations idea in the title refers to the fact that scientists have predicted that, in three generations time (or by the end of the century), we will have lost many of the species that inhabit the earth, due to habitat loss, inadequate food sources or climate change.

The book is divided into chapters, each concerned with a different issue that is upsetting the balance of the planet.  Each chapter will have a different page in this blog.  They include:

  • Our beautiful planet in harmony;
  • The industrial revolution;
  • Human Inventiveness and the Concepts of Progress and Freedom;
  • Trading Systems, Deficits and the Concept of Growth;
  • World Human Population, Past, Present and Future;
  • Conflict, Conquest, Weaponry, Wars and the Power of Propaganda;
  • The Economy;
  • Global Networks;
  • Bringing it all together and a way forward;
  • End Piece Two.

The book includes a lot of illustrations to help clarify the issues and is written in an easily-readable style, as it is targeted towards people who might not normally read books on this subject.  It is believed that, by bringing many people to an understanding of how urgent the issue is, we may begin to see lobbying throughout the world, for governments to take heed of, and legislate on, the factors that continue to add to the carbon load on the planet.  It is urgent that something is done and not just done locally but by international co-operation throughout the globe.

It is considered that the book might be suitable for use in secondary schools and/or undergraduate courses.  It is hoped to add some sections to this website, which mght be used when preparing lesson plans and/or chapter summaries with questions which might be used for homework.

The INTRODUCTION to the book is included below:

 

INTRODUCTION

 In 1994 I went on a sabbatical trip around the world, the purpose of which was to meet women engaged in social mission in the cities of this world and to learn from them.  It was like a pilgrimage.  I met with inspirational women, lived alongside the poor myself and met several visionary people, whose books and projects continue to inspire me.  I wrote up the details of this journey in a book and the following (italicised) is a direct quote from my first book1.

 “I met indigenous people and visionary leaders in the Far East, Australia and South Asia. I tasted the colourful diversity and beauty of the world and returned exhilarated.  But I also saw much that was not good:

 First, and most important, was the pollution suffocating each of the cities I visited, caused by filthy fumes belched from immobile traffic jams, from elderly motor cars, factory chimneys, gigantic airliners and forest fires. An immense, choking, cloud of blue-grey haze hung over each city, destroying the ozone layer, causing global warming, the melting of the ice caps, famine, flooding and changes in climate in all parts of the world – a series of events that may have already gone too far to be reversed.

 Second, I witnessed extreme poverty in some parts of the world: mothers with tiny, malnourished babies, begging for scraps, alongside the sick, leprous and disabled, whilst in nearby hotels, the rich gorged themselves in hedonistic displays of self-indulgence.  Governments and developed nations seemed oblivious to the suffering of the poor, which I saw as a violation of human dignity, and so little was being done.

 Third, I saw that the world had been taken over by greedy merchants.  By this, I don’t just mean the rip-off merchants to be found in every port of the world; I mainly refer to the people who trade in all kinds of goods for their own benefit, regardless of the effect this has on the stability of the world, its ecosystems, its mineral and animal resources, its local economies and cultural traditions.  Examples of this are the following trades: the capture and international trade in rare species, ivory, fur, immature primates etc.; the development of animal foodstuffs from animal carcases (creating cannibalism in ruminant species and diseases like BSE and CJD); the holding of developing countries to ransom by powerful banks, through exploitative usury; a similar use of oil (itself a dangerous pollutant) by oil-producing countries; the development of powerful, polluting and dangerous motor vehicles for their owner’s enjoyment; the development of genetically-modified foods for commercial purposes; the unnecessary transport of foods across continents, adding to the pollution and global warming; currency speculation – an international casino in which unscrupulous traders destroy the economies of whole nations; multi-national trading by powerful companies, which destroys local cultures and gains profits by avoiding national controls; the siting of  polluting factories close to human populations.  The list could go on….

 What I see is a blindness of thought, insularity, a lack of responsibility for the wider damage caused by individual actions in all three dimensions, all three inextricably bound together.  There is a dogged belief in freedom – but freedom for its own sake, without responsibility, without compassion, runs unchecked.  Politicians promote a market economy as if it were a good thing but I saw that it was at the root of the cycle of destruction. Left without controls, it leads to competition and materialism, acquisitiveness spreading like a cancer, greed, the exploitation of one group, nation, or species by another, the concomitant resentment triggering jealousy and wars, with the end result being the ultimate destruction of our beautiful world by selfish people. Rather than assessing needs to develop standards, values and strategies, the vagaries of the market determine priorities and direction, so that the rich benefit at the expense of the poor, as well as at the expense of the planet…..

Tinkering with these issues at G8 summits is not enough.  Resolving conflicts of interest through threats and wars, and the offering of paltry aid to poor countries are also totally inadequate.  To reverse current trends, and to prevent the destruction of the world, there is an urgent need for co-operation between nations, in which the commonality of the human condition is stressed, rather than its diversity.  Then, mankind might find a way to tackle global warming, to alleviate extreme poverty and to frustrate the exploitation of the merchants.  One vehicle for this might be through a reformed and inclusive United Nations, commissioned to act with robust determination to save the planet, its peoples and all its beautiful creatures.”

 The things that I saw and the people that I met during those months of travel continue to influence and encourage me. On my return to the UK, inspired by what I had seen, I went on to set up two more social projects for marginalised people living in the inner city of Birmingham. The setting up of these projects is what has delayed me in the writing of this book.  It has taken me 22 years to actually put pen to paper about the issue of climate change.

At about the same time as I was writing my first book, I also received a number of letters from a friend and neighbour, Barbara Panvel, who divided her time between living in Mumbai, India, and in the UK. One day she was meditating whilst in India and felt compelled to write to me about a new initiative that she was being led to develop. She sent me a New Era Statement (see Table 1) for my comment.  At that time, she hoped to establish a coalition of like-minded people who would identify with the statement.  She later set up a New Era Network website (www.neweranetwork.info) and, initially involved several people from her wide circle of contacts in writing reports on “Counting the Costs” (of our present system); these reports are made available on the website. The first of these, written in 2005 by Jeremy Seabrook, Mark Tully and Molly Scott Cato (now a Green MEP)2. I will draw on this material in the writing of this book, as it provides statistics which give weight to the theory that I will attempt to expound.

More than ten years have passed since Barbara set up the website and it is still active, containing a wealth of positive information, added to daily, about initiatives that may bring about the changes to our society that we seek.

As we continued our correspondence between Mumbai and Birmingham, we came to an understanding that, rather than listing all the negatives about our present dysfunctional society, we needed to define what a civilised society might look like. So, we put together a list, which each of us has used in our separate ways since then.  Barbara constructed several websites associated with the list and adds material to them regularly.  The websites are shown below:


 

BARBARA’S WEBSITES

  1. Civilisation 3000: true defence, http://civilisation3000.wordpress.com/,

     2. C3 economic & political affairs: positive developments, https://britain2020.wordpress.com/ 

      3. C3 good news- environment, heritage: antidote to gloom, https://antidotecounteragent.wordpress.com/, 

      4. C3 food production – a vital public service: provision of food – and water – in UK & worldwide, https://foodvitalpublicservice.wordpress.com/, 

      5. Drone Warfare: http://dronewarfare.wordpress.com/  

 

     6. Political Concern website: http://politicalcleanup.wordpress.com/

     7. New Era Network: news of members, http://neweranetwork.info/ (dormant: material to be transferred to the wordpress site below for technical reasons)

    8. New Era Network: news of members, https://notthembutus.wordpress.com/

    9. Chemical Concern: http://gmandchemicalindustry9.wordpress.com/ 

     13. Localise West Midlands: (Loc2 posts) http://localisewestmidlands.org.uk/blog/ 

     10. Nuclear industries: https://nuclearindustries.wordpress.com/


The sites are visited regularly by hundreds of people from across the globe.  It is a valuable piece of work and I have drawn on articles posted on the websites in the writing of this book.

I expanded the list of the characteristics of a civilised society to a total of 17 factors and published it at the end of my first book (shown here in Table 2). Some might think this list to be somewhat Utopian – and it probably is, as there is no doubt that no society exists today, anywhere in the world, which could tick all 17 boxes.  Maybe there are some which could tick none of them. But we need a model to aspire to and this list is as good as any other.

In 1979, James Lovelock, an eminent British scientist, published a theory, which he named “Gaia”3. It is an inspirational and classic work, which sees the evolution of life and the evolution of the Earth as a single, tightly-coupled process from which the self-regulation of the environment emerges. It is now available in paperback. As a scientist myself (life sciences), I find his theory fascinating and compelling.  As a Christian who strongly believes in good stewardship of the earth, I also find it exciting. The main thrust of Lovelock’s theory is the inter-connection of all the ecosystems on earth and in the atmosphere. If one thing goes out of kilter, such as too much carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, then the whole of life on earth will be affected.  And we are living in such a time, with global warming caused by an excess of carbon dioxide, leading to climate change and catastrophic weather events and the loss of indigenous species, with the eventual destruction of the planet, and the life on it, if nothing is done to stop the process by re-balancing the systems and cycles and reducing carbon emissions.

It is my belief that the social, demographic, industrial, trading and economic systems on this earth have a similar inter-connectedness, with each other and also with environmental ecosystems.  The purpose of this book is to try to demonstrate this inter-connectedness.  I am a scientist and a social entrepreneur, not an economist, but I will draw on other people’s theories in those areas where I am less qualified.

We have all seen experimental set-ups with dominos – thousands of them set up in a pattern across a room – then one domino is pushed over, to start a chain reaction in which they all eventually tumble over.  I believe it is the same with the inter-connected systems of this world – if one gets out of balance, then all the others will eventually follow, tumbling down into chaos, like a house of cards.

All of the inter-connected factors will be dealt with separately, in their own chapters but I hope to show in this book how they each overlap, connect and influence all the others.  There are certain books, which I have drawn on particularly and I would recommend them to anybody who wishes to study this subject further.  They include:

Winin Pereira and Jeremy Seabrook (1996) Asking the Earth – the spread of unsustainable development4;

Richard Douthwaite (1999) The Growth Illusion5;

Paul Rogers (2012) ORG Special Briefing6;

George Monbiot: www.monbiot.com and his various articles in the Guardian7;

James Lovelock (2009) Gaia3.

And, in addition to these, I must add Naomi Klein’s book, “This Changes Everything7. Her book came to my attention when I had written about half of my book and it is rapidly moving to the position of being a classic work on climate change. I refer to some of her ideas in the later chapters of my book.

A learned colleague of mine, who was also an editor, once advised me that, when writing up my scientific research for publication, I should aim to explain things so simply that an elderly aunt might be able understand them. Whilst his comments were both ageist and sexist, I have understood the spirit of his comment and I still try to take his advice when I write.  Much of this book is therefore written in a fairly simple style, in the hope that non-scientists will be able to understand it.  I believe this is important because, whilst there are many people in the world who read, and link into the New Era Network and Civilisation websites, there are many more others who seem unaware of the dangers that we face on this planet, if we continue with our present way of life.  Maybe these others have been influenced by the right wing press into thinking that what the scientists are saying is not true or is overly exaggerated. I would like this book to be read, and understood, by many people, for it is only when the masses come together to lobby for change, that change will occur. The political powers, both nationally and globally, have too much vested interest in maintaining current systems and economies, to bring about the changes that are urgently needed. Their links with the business world also affect their ability to see the situation holistically and objectively.

But I apologise in advance to those people who find this book too simple or who believe that I am telling them what they already know.  If you are one of these, please bear with me as there may be something new for you here among the pages – or material that you can use in your own awareness-raising and/or lobbying for change.

TABLE 1


 NEW ERA STATEMENT

(from 1999)

 “Actively, or through our inactivity, we have fashioned a society whose members are fed on polluted food, breathe toxic air, have varying degrees of ill health or disease due to damaged immune systems, and are distressed by rising levels of violence – nationally and internationally.

 Having historically deprived our young people of the ability to be independent by taking their share of the commons – land, skills and the means of production – all we can currently offer them is a poisoned chalice, containing no hope of a better future and the abhorrent legacy of nuclear waste.

 To enter a new era by effecting beneficial change, we think it important that people rescind their acceptance of the party political system and of the current economic mythology which has brought about our present social, psychological environmental stresses and distresses.

 The decision-making, which has led us into our present situation, has been conducted within the framework of a party political system, which attracts people, greedy for power and/or money, to come forward and govern. Most able, honest and altruistic people will not contemplate taking part in it as presently constituted.

 Conventional classic economic theory and practice ignores the basic rights of the majority in order to make huge profits for a minority – similarly greedy for power and money.

 People who are altruistic, demonstrably honest (in financial and personal dealings), aware that every one of our institutions is failing and are seeking wholesome alternatives, need to come together…..

 A New Era Movement would grow organically….. Its emphasis would be to promote and celebrate ethically sound, socially just, environmentally sustainable developments in every sphere.”

 


TABLE 2


NEW ERA: CIVILISATION 21st CENTURY

In a civilised society people should have: 

  1. Pure drinking water;
  2. Clean air;
  3. Sufficient food to keep them from starvation, that is uncontaminated by pesticides, genetic modification, food-chain-infringement or other pollution;
  4. Adequate shelter from the elements;
  5. Access to good, affordable medical care;
  6. The opportunity of high quality education throughout their lives;
  7. Opportunities to participate in self-fulfilling work;
  8. An expectation that they will be cared for in a thoughtful, un-violating way, should they become orphaned, injured, disabled or disadvantaged in any way;
  9. A choice of sustainable livelihoods;
  10. Freedom of (courteous) speech;
  11. Effective participation in decision-making;
  12. An agreed code or legal system, effectively and democratically implemented;
  13. Freedom of association (political, religious etc.);
  14. An ability to move within society without fear of violence, abuse, derogation, marginalisation or exploitation;
  15. Respect for the needs, dignity and rights of other peoples and species inhabiting the globe;
  16. Honesty and transparency in both financial and personal relationships and dealings;
  17. Opportunities to resolve problems through dialogue and non-violent action – at local, regional, national and international level.


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Our Beautiful World in Harmony

CHAPTER 1

Our beautiful world in harmony

One October, when I was about 6 years old, my mother took me out for a treat. My older siblings were involved in other things and this was a rare opportunity for me to have my mother’s undivided attention. We walked to a local park, Scotch Common, which had a variety of trees, beginning to show their autumn colours: coppers, browns, golds, ochres and reds. We identified some of the trees as horse chestnut, oak and sycamore and then searched beneath them to collect their seeds: shiny brown conkers with a varnish-like sheen, green and brown acorns, some separated from their craggy cups, and the winged sycamore paired seeds, which would spiral slowly down to the ground if you threw them into the air.  Mum suggested I take a selection to school to put on the nature table.

I don’t know why this incident sticks in my mind but I believe that it may have been the beginning of a growing love of nature in me, which is still a significant part of my identity.  Though I am now 73 years old, each autumn I still collect conkers and acorns and sycamore seeds for my own nature table at home. I don’t know how much longer I will be able to do this, as the seasons are changing so much. Already the conker crop last year seemed smaller and autumn was extended with a mild spell, with golden leaves on the trees until well into November, and winter still not started by Christmas. Are we in danger of losing some of these great trees and their fruit and their annual cycles related to the seasons?  Why is it that we have summer flowers still in blossom in December and reports that in some parts of the UK, the spring flowers (daffodils etc) are already in blossom in December?

Yes, I love nature but my love of animals far surpasses that of the plant kingdom.  We share this world with some wonderful creatures: the large wild carnivores and herbivores of Africa and Asia; the strange marsupials of Australasia; the prairie animals; the domesticated pets who share our homes with us; the birds who visit our gardens and who migrate across great oceans every year; the creatures and fish of the seas; the inhabitants of the polar ice caps and the smaller secretive wild mammals who live in burrows.

I believe that I am not the only person in this world who loves nature in this way and who respects and enjoys the splendour of our world. We live on a magnificent planet and share it with some spectacular creatures.

I am writing this book because I believe that we are in danger of losing it all. And the magnitude of this loss is greater, and the need for action more urgent, than many believe.

How everything fits together in harmony

It has been known for more than 50 years, and certainly since I was at school during the 50s and 60s, that the process of photosynthesis in plants is closely linked to the process of respiration in animals. Indeed, one could almost describe the relationship between plants and animals as symbiotic, one being dependent upon the other to maintain its life.  The plant life on the planet absorbs carbon dioxide from the air and water from the soil and, through chemical reactions, changes them into glucose and oxygen. The oxygen is released into the air and breathed in by the animal life (including ourselves). In animals, oxygen is inhaled and carbon dioxide is released through the process of respiration.  Thus, plants provide oxygen for animals to breathe and animals exhale carbon dioxide, which is used by plants in the process of photosynthesis.

This photosynthetic cycle has been analysed and shown to be a series of chemical reactions, all initially triggered by light energy from the sun.  Chloroplasts in plants (in the green chlorophyll) trap the sunlight, which provides the energy for the photosynthetic cycle (Fig.1).

Fig 1. The relationship between photosynthesis in plants and respiration in animals

the process of photosynthesis

From: http://www.motherearthnews.com/nature-and-environment/nature/how-photosynthesis-works-zw0z1406zwea.aspx                                          with permission

This process happens throughout nature, from the very smallest algae and plankton to the giant trees in our forests and from the smallest amoebae and zooplankton in water to the largest of our land and sea mammals (elephants and whales) – an interchange of gases and chemical products between plants and animals which is important to sustain life.

But the photosynthetic and respiratory cycles do not stand alone.  They are inter-linked with other kinds of cycles, the chemical processes of which have been carefully studied by scientists.  For example, plants store another product of photosynthesis (glucose or starch) and this is consumed by herbivorous and omnivorous animals and provides them with the energy they need for growth and development. Thus, there is a transfer of energy from the sun to plants and then on to animals, this energy is needed to sustain life.  And none of this could begin without the presence of the sun itself – at exactly the right strength.

Fig 2 THE CARBON CYCLE

Illustration by LizzardBrandInc, with permission from UCAR

There are other cycles in nature too: the nitrogen cycle, the Krebs cycle (to process and release energy) and the carbon cycle (Fig 2), which is closely linked to the respiratory cycle of animals.  The carbon cycle involves the decomposition of dead and decaying matter into fossil fuels (see later for the significance of this).

Following the discovery of interactive cycles in nature, it was not long before the whole concept of food chains was proposed, with the lowest forms of life being consumed by the next species up the food chain, from herbivores (plant eaters) to omnivores (plant and meat eaters), with the carnivores (big cats, birds of prey etc) at the top of the food chain.  Thus, the sun’s energy is transferred first through plants to animals and then up through the food chain, simplified diagrams of which are in Figure 3.

Fig 3.  Simple Food chains

From: www.k8schoollessons.com/food-chains-and-food-webs/ (with permission)

 The diagrams in Fig.3 show simplified food chains but, in fact, things are rarely as simple as this and the concept of a “food web” is much closer to reality. Figure 4 shows a woodland food web, which can be seen to be much more complex than a simple chain, with various species being inter-dependent.

Image result for woodland food web

Figure 4:  A Woodland Food Web from www.docbrown.info, (with permission)

 A recent programme on BBC TV, “Secrets of our Living Planet”, also available on DVD9, gave examples of some fascinating food webs throughout the world, from tropical rain forests, to savannahs and in the oceans, and demonstrated that if one member of the web disappeared, then others wouldn’t survive.  The most compelling example of this was the brazil nut tree, which relied on a small rodent, the agouti (Fig. 5), to crack and disperse its seeds, as well as an orchid, which grew on its trunk and attracted a particular species of bee, to pollinate both tree and orchid, the male bee pollinating one and the female bee pollinating the other, with the bees reliant on the nectar in the flowers for their survival.

Fig 5 – the Brazilian agouti (from www.hidephotography.com with permission)

So we can see from this that, not only is there an interaction and inter-dependency between plants and animals, but that inter-dependency continues throughout the animal kingdom, in a complex web.  Thus, if one species disappears, or becomes extinct, this may also affect other species, which are dependent on it as a food source or pollinator. This whole interaction between members of the plant and animal species is called an ecosystem.

I feel that the interaction of all the cycles and ecosystems is close to being miraculous.  Our world has been regulated in an astounding way.  It is as if everything on this planet has been put in place in ecosystems, or has evolved, to work harmoniously, so that all life on this planet remains in balance, in a wonderful connectedness and interdependency that maintains life.

I love to wander through parts of our green land, with rolling hills and tranquil forests, just taking in the beauty of it. I also love to visit beaches to hear the sea and breathe in the clean, salty ocean air. It is not surprising therefore that I have been  excited by the hypothesis proposed by the scientist, James Lovelock, in 197910, which states that the earth itself is a self-regulating body;  that the earth is like one big organism with the ability to regulate critical systems to meet its own needs and to sustain life. It is called the Gaia Hypothesis.

Image result for gaia hypothesis

Fig.6 Gaia Hypothesis (from http://www.google.com)

The regulatory mechanisms which have been keeping all life in balance and harmony for thousands of years are now being undermined and put out of harmony by the hand of man.   Let’s have a look at what we have been doing to place all this at risk and what we need to do to make things right again.

Our beautiful world no longer in harmony

Fossil fuels, produced as part of the carbon cycle, have been used by humans for centuries, but especially since the industrial revolution, to produce other forms of energy for humans to heat their homes, run their vehicles, power up vast factories and to develop more and more complex gadgets and life-enhancing commodities.  The downside of this practice is, of course, that carbon dioxide and other toxic gases are released into the atmosphere as a by-product of their use, resulting in global warming.

Global warming is the rise in average global surface temperature caused primarily by the build-up of human-produced greenhouses gases, mostly carbon dioxide and methane, which trap heat in the lower levels of the atmosphere.

At the beginning of the industrial revolution it was not realised that the plant life on earth could not cope with absorbing all the extra carbon dioxide being released into the atmosphere from manufacturing and the problem was made worse by the felling of many of the great trees in the mighty rainforests of the earth, in order to clear land for agriculture and to sell the wood.  Figure 7 shows the dramatic increase in fossil fuel emissions since 1870. This is comprised mainly of carbon dioxide.

 Fig.7  Fossil fuel emissions since 1751

Projection of global carbon emissions from fossil fuel use, 1751 to 2006 (CDIAC data)

From: http://www.fraw.org.uk/mei/ecolonomics/00/ecolonomics-20091013.shtml

GteC refers to Giga-tonnes of carbon

 Human activity has been bringing all the ecosystems on the planet into an imbalance and a resulting effect of this has been the loss of numerous species, as well as changes to the climate and global temperatures.

Another way in which plant life and animal life (insects and birds) have interactive cycles is the way in which bees depend on flowers for nectar and, in visiting plants to feed on nectar, they inadvertently brush against the pollen in the flower stamens.  They then carry this pollen on their bodies to other flowers and become the means by which pollination occurs in plants (part of the reproductive cycle of plants).  Recently, vast decreases in the numbers of bees have been noticed and this is thought to be caused by the use of pesticides on plants.  If the bees were to disappear altogether, pollination might not occur and this could reduce some of the food sources available to us.  Vegetables and fruit known to be pollinated by bees are okra, kiwifruit, onion, celery, cashew nuts, strawberries, papaya, custard apples, turnips, beet, brazil nuts, carrots, broccoli, cauliflower, Brussels sprouts, cabbage, water melon, coconut, tangerine, cucumber, quince, fig, apple, walnuts, mangos, avocados, peach, nectarine, pear, raspberry, blackberry, elderberry, cocoa, passion fruit and many others.

Thus, the loss of bees might result in the loss of most of the vegetables and fruits that the human race, and other species, rely upon for their food.

Fig 8:  Bees in the process of pollinating flowers

Image result for diagram of cycle of bees pollinating flowers

From: http://www.kidsgardening.org/node/99559

There have been vast changes in the way that farmers have carried out their agricultural activities in recent years; they have copied some processes from the manufacturing industry to become more “productive”, using intensive farming methods, removing hedgerows and maximising the use of their fields.  Over this same period, certain species of birds have been disappearing because the insects in hedgerows that they feed on are no longer there, or have been killed off with pesticides.

Wikipedia lists 190 species of birds which have become extinct since 1500 and a further 321 are currently endangered, including the cuckoo and several of our garden species.

A recent report from American scientists, Ceballos and colleagues11, suggests that human activity has already triggered the beginnings of another mass extinction, thereby threatening our own future. According to this group, there have been five mass extinctions in the earth’s past (the extinction of dinosaurs being the most well-known) and that this latest threat to the planet would be its sixth mass extinction. They state that, in the last century, vertebrates (animals with backbones) have been disappearing at a rate 114 times greater than would normally be expected, without the destructive activity of humans.  They pointed out that, since 1900, over 400 more vertebrates than expected had vanished; this included 69 mammals, 80 birds, 24 reptiles, 146 amphibians and 158 fish species.  They warn that species loss will have a significant effect on human populations in as little as three generations.  The researchers concluded that this destruction of species is accelerating and initiating a mass extinction episode unparalleled for 65 million years.

This report has triggered significant discussion within the scientific community, and some have ventured to include humans (also vertebrates) as part of this extinction.  They are confident that bees will definitely be extinct by then and perhaps many of the large carnivores, such as lions. Whether humans also become extinct depends, one supposes, on whether those creatures and plants which we rely on for food, have disappeared in this mass extinction.  It is estimated that 2,000 sheep and 100 cattle were drowned in the recent floods engulfing the north of England, so the loss of our food sources due to climate change is a possibility.  So, with bees gone and the vegetables that they pollinate and the loss of some of our meat sources, things look bleak for humans in the future too. A number of organisations are predicting crop failures due to climate change by 2030, particularly in the poorer countries in Asia and Africa.

There are also concerns about the effects of climate change on human health12. This 43-page significant publication by Antony Costello and others gives evidence of grave concern to human health.

Anthony Costello, director of the UCL Institute for Global Health said: “Our analysis clearly shows that by tackling climate change, we can also benefit health — and tackling climate change in fact represents one of the greatest opportunities to benefit human health for generations to come”. And Hugh Montgomery who co-chaired the Commission said, “Climate change is a medical emergency. It thus demands an emergency response, using the technologies available right now”.

Also, in its 2010 report “A Human Health Perspective on Climate Change”13 the National Institute on Environmental Health Sciences gives a list of the health consequences of increased greenhouse gases and climate change. The list includes about twelve major health risks.  The human population would therefore seem to be as much at risk as the creatures with whom we share this planet.

And yet, humans don’t seem to be able to stop tinkering with the natural order of things in the ecosystems of the world.  One vivid example comes from Australia where, in 1935, a toad from South America was introduced to Queensland, with the aim of using it to consume cane beetles, which were damaging sugar cane crops.  This toad did not eat the beetle and instead multiplied in huge numbers, because it had no natural predators, so that the cane toad is now a national pest.  It is also poisonous to other species and is now being blamed for a massive reduction in the number of dwarf crocodiles in Australia.

Fig. 9: Cane Toad

Image result for cane toad

To go back to farming practices:  Fields are no longer left to lie fallow and so do not have a chance to replenish the nutrients found in soil that are essential to plant life, so that they become less productive.  However, some farmers are now introducing permaculture, with good results and organic farming is also on the increase.

During the 1990’s the condition of “mad cow disease” (BSE – bovine spongiform encephalopathy) appeared in the UK and it was eventually discovered that foodstuffs fed to cattle at that time had been processed from animal sources and so cows, who are herbivores, were being fed foodstuffs which turned them into not only carnivores but also cannibals.  This violation of the natural food chains had far reaching consequencies, as it would appear that it could be passed on to humans who consumed meat from cattle with BSE, the human form of the disease being named CJD (Creutzfeldt-Jakob Disease).  Another example of human activity which had devastating effects on the life of the planet.

In a recent “Springwatch” programme on BBC TV, we were made aware of another dangerous practice:  the production of exfoliation products for washing our faces; these soap-based products contain tiny particles of plastic (which do the exfoliation); these are washed down sinks and eventually get down via rivers into the sea.  They are absorbed by microplankton, which are subsequently eaten by fish – and thus find their way into the food chain, if they do not kill the fish off first.

So here we have several kinds of human activity that are interfering with the natural cycles and transfer of chemicals and energy through the plant and animal kingdoms, as well as through the food chains:

  • the whole industrialisation process, which releases excessive carbon dioxide and other toxic pollutants into the air;
  • the use of pesticides to enhance agricultural production, which has killed off bees and other insects and also birds;
  • intensive farming methods which have eliminated hedgerows and thus the bird species which rely on them for nests and food;
  • the feeding of processed animal products to herbivores;
  • the expansion in the use of exfoliants, which get into rivers and seas and work their way up through the food chain;
  • the introduction of non-native species into other countries;
  • deforestation and land clearance.

And these have not been the only human activities to do this. Humans also exploit the animal kingdom, sometimes in very cruel ways, in order to make money for themselves and this has also put some species at risk of extinction.  This exploitation includes killing elephants for ivory, rhinos for their horns, sharks for their fins, bears for their bile, pangolins and forest mammals for their meat and capturing baby monkeys and other primates, some from rare species, to sell in markets. Some species, such as the tiger, are currently threatened because of habitat loss or fragmentation. Forests where the tiger lives are cleared for agricultural activity, such as growing palm oil. Many other species are also in danger because of habitat loss (orang utan, elephant, rhino, polar bear etc).  As I write, we hear about a huge fire in the country of Indonesia, originally started to clear forest for the planting of palm oil crops, but now burning out of control, leaving a smoky haze over a wide area.  Indonesia is the only habitat for the endangered orang utan, as well as the rare Bornean white-bearded gibbon, sun bears and pangolins.

Global warming has led to the melting of the ice caps and a subsequent rise of sea levels, so that some island nations are at risk of disappearing into the sea. Scientists have predicted that global average surface temperatures are likely to rise by 3-4˚ within the lifespan of today’s teenagers, though there are efforts to keep it down to below 1.5˚.   The BBC recently reported that, as 2015 has been a particularly hot year, the average global temperature is likely to increase above 1˚ for the first time14. In a later chapter I will discuss the efforts being made at UN level to keep the temperature rise below 1.5˚.

 Fig. 10 – increases in global average temperature since 1860

Temperatures

From: www.bbc.co.uk (GCSE Bitesize)

Recent reports, described in the Guardian, have demonstrated that global temperatures in 2016 have been the hottest since records began15  so that 2016 is likely to be the hottest on record, with 2015 was the hottest year on record before that and 2014 the hottest year before that.

Also affected has been the climate, with more frequent catastrophic events, such as tornados and cyclones, mud slides, flooding, droughts, desertification etc. With the melting of the polar ice caps, the ecological balance of species living in these areas has also been disturbed, the most well-known being the polar bear, which can no longer rely on its main food resource, the seal.

 FIG 11: A starving and emaciated female polar bear on a small block of ice

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Photograph by Kerstin Langenberger with permission

 Already, in several parts of the world there has been a rise in sea level, affecting especially coastal areas and island nations (Maldives, Marshall Islands, Philippines, Tuvalu, Solomon Islands). Over the past century, the world’s oceans have risen 4-8 inches. It is reported that several rocket launch areas and space stations in the US will have to be moved inland, because of the risk of flooding.  Scientific models have suggested that sea levels will rise by 20 centimetres by 2050 (that’s another 8 inches), or triple that if the ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica continue to melt. The acidity of the sea has also increased by 30%, due to it absorbing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere to form carbonic acid and this puts some marine creatures and coral at risk.  Coral reefs are particularly in danger, especially the iconic Great Barrier Reef, just off Australia. Australia’s recent surge in industrialisation projects (mega-mines, dredging and railway projects) has put the reef in danger with rapid destruction of the coral. We are told that 50% of coral has been lost since the 1980s, due to the warming of the sea.

Fig. 12: Bleaching of the coral in the Great Barrier Reef

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From: https://fightforthereef.org.au

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Fig. 13 – the increases in sea level over the last century.                                                  Source: US EPA Climate Change website

Most worrying are the vast permafrost regions of the world (Siberia, Canada, Alaska), where the earth remains below freezing point, even during the summer.  If the temperature of these areas increases, then large quantities of methane will be released into the atmosphere, adding to the problems of global warming that we already have.

At this time, there are campaigning groups trying to stop companies drilling for oil in the Arctic ocean, where the sea ice is already melting at a rapid rate. Recent studies in Greenland have shown that there is evidence that the glaciers are shrinking and the ice is thinning.  A recent report from the Californian Institute of Technology states that one of the biggest glaciers in Greenland, Zachariae Isstrom, which holds enough ice to raise the sea level by 18 inches, has broken loose from a stable position and is melting at both ends, with ice crumbling into the North Atlantic Ocean.  Greenland is the second largest ice body in the world and already contributes to about 40% of the current sea level rise.  Since 1992, 65 million tons of Antarctic ice has melted.

Fig. 14: The Shrinking of Arctic sea ice between 1979 and 2016

copyright: Andy Lee Haviland (with permission)

Some have made calculations about what would happen to the world if all the ice caps were to melt and it is quite clear that, not only island nations, but also whole countries and some major cities would be swallowed up by the sea.  The map below shows what would happen to Europe in this circumstance.  Such a circumstance would remove much of the UK, especially the eastern areas and around the wash and the Thames, the whole of the Netherlands, Belgium, almost all of Denmark, part of northern Germany and Russia, much of Turkey and the Baltic regions. Venice would disappear into the Adriatic Sea and the Caspian and Black Seas would become much larger.  Worldwide, we would lose Bangladesh, Singapore, some of the Philippine Islands, much of Sumatra and Papua New Guinea, the whole of Florida, several Caribbean islands, Tuvalu and much of China.  Huge inland seas would develop in Australia, around the Amazon and Paraguay River basins and delta areas would also be inundated (Mekong, Nile, Ganges), leading to the submergence of Cairo and Alexandria.  Due to differences in ocean currents, the sea level increase would be higher in some areas than others (eg the eastern seaboard of the USA).  Africa’s coastline would not be as affected as that of some other continents but, due to temperature rises, some parts would become so hot that they would be uninhabitable.

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Fig 15 and 15a: Pictures showing new coastline of Europe if all the ice caps were to melt – the outer line shows coastlines as they are at present     Source: National Geographic Creative (with permission)

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All of the changes described above have not gone unnoticed and there have been numerous campaigns and demonstrations to prevent some of the human activities which are endangering our planet, some more successful than others. For example, in the Netherlands, one of the countries most at risk of rising sea levels, the Hague District Court recently ordered the Dutch government to reduce the country’s greenhouse gas emissions by at least 25% by 2020.  This arose following a complaint by an activist group.  The Netherlands is particularly vulnerable to the effects of global warming, with much of its land lying below sea level.  The island nations are also at risk of being swallowed up by the sea but this is as a result of greenhouse gas emissions of other countries, rather than their own. And the Philippines were recently devastated by Cyclone Yolande.  All of this is summarised in a short video clip on Facebook (https://www.facebook.com/worldeconomicforum/videos/10154178419921479/).

The United Nations has been taking action, ever since the Rio Summit in 1992 (to be described in a later chapter) but it is not enough, as carbon emissions continue to rise.  As I started to write this book, the latest summit (CPO21 in Paris) had not yet taken place but, by the time it was finished, an agreement had been reached, which will be discussed in Chapter 8.

Some of the toxic chemicals released from human manufacturing activity, such as nitrous oxide and bromine and chlorine compounds (CFCs), have the effect of depleting the ozone layer, which exists in the earth’s atmosphere.  The purpose of the ozone layer is to absorb ultra-violet rays from the sun. Ozone levels in the stratosphere have reduced by 4% since 1970 and there is an ozone hole over the Antarctic circle – again more evidence that human activity is affecting the stability of the planet.

So many factors have been interacting to create the global situation in which we are at the moment and this book attempts to show how they interrelate. Each chapter in this book will look at a different factor, which has put the planet and its species at risk and will show, I hope, that each of these has an inter-connectedness.  We therefore need to tackle every factor, not just one in isolation.  Scientists have said that we have only three generations to do this before things have gone too far.  If the exponential graphs shown in Figures 7, 11 and 15 continue at this rate, then we probably have even less time than three generations to reverse the changes.

A short piece of film has recently been circulated on the internet, which summarizes all of these risk factors, and is especially targeted at those who, like me, love and cherish the natural world16.

Scientists have predicted that, in three generations time, there will be a mass extinction of many of the animal species inhabiting this planet.  It is not clear whether this extinction will include humans but many of the animal, insect and bird species that we have grown to love will have gone by then.  I think the risk is there for human populations as well, so I have used this “3 generations” factor as the title of this book and in most of the assessments and discussions which follow. Let’s hope that this never happens but using 3 generations as a rule of thumb will hopefully concentrate the minds of those who are in positions in which they can make the changes needed to ensure that this never becomes a reality.