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The Truth about Heatwaves: 3

In three previous blogs, I have discussed heatwaves and their effects on land, over the oceans and their effects on human survivability.

In this (4th) blog, I am going to provide more data linking heatwaves in the UK with a spike in the number of deaths, especially in the elderly, the young and those with specific health issues – vulnerable groups.

After the 2018 heatwave, The Guardian, published an analysis of this, based on official statistics; it can be seen at: https://www.theguardian.com/society/2018/aug/03/deaths-rose-650-above-average-during-uk-heatwave-with-older-people-most-at-risk

The following includes extracts from The Guardian article:


Nearly 700 more deaths than average were recorded during the 15-day peak of the heatwave in June and July 2018 in England and Wales.

The height of the heatwave was from 25 June to 9 July, according to the Met Office, a run of 15 consecutive days with temperatures above 28C. The deaths registered during the weeks covering this period were 663 higher than the average for the same weeks over the previous five years, a Guardian analysis of data from the Office of National Statistics shows.

beachJuly 2018

ONS analysis for previous years indicate hundreds of additional deaths were associated with brief periods of heatwave conditions in July 2016 and June 2017. The full toll of the 2018 heatwave could reach 1,000, according to one prediction.

“While working in A&E this summer, I saw patients presenting with heatstroke and other conditions that were probably exacerbated by the hot weather, and this obviously places an additional strain on our already struggling health services,” she said.

Dehydration can lead to many issues, from dizziness and falls, to an increased risk of infections, heart attacks and strokes. The 2018 heatwave showed that hospitals and care homes must be made ready to cope with high temperatures.



Another article, published by the London School of Economics and Political Science last year, stated that people are dying of ignorance:

Hundreds are dying from ignorance of rising heatwave risks

The article states that many of these deaths could have been prevented if Government Departments and agencies had listened to the advice of experts and improved the shockingly poor flow of information to the public about the rising risk of heatwaves due to climate change.

There is evidence that many people perish each summer in the UK because they do not understand that the frequency of heatwave conditions are increasing.

The full death toll from summer 2018’s hot weather will not be known for a some months, but is likely to exceed 1000 based on what has happened in previous years.

It is a public health emergency about which nobody is talking. If more than 1000 people were killed in flooding, there would rightly be an outcry, particularly if many of the deaths could have been avoided.

Researchers at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine identified older people as being particularly vulnerable but also concluded that more people suffer in Greater London, South-East and East England. These are the hottest parts of the UK, and have been experiencing significant amounts of warming over the past few decades.

An assessment in 2014 found statistically significant increases in daily maximum, minimum and mean air temperatures between 1910 and 2011, with “the rate of change increasing from the north and west to the south and east”.

Public Health England published in 2015 an annual heatwave plan (PDF) and jointly operates, with the Met Office, the ‘Heat-Health Watch’ which issues warnings ahead of heatwave conditions occurring. However, the Met Office fails frequently to tell the public that climate change is increasing the risk of heatwaves in the UK.


 


Another report about the UK heatwave in 2019 had similar findings. It was from the Office for National Statistics (ONS):

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/causesofdeath/articles/dosummerheatwavesleadtoanincreaseindeaths/2019-10-07

The number of deaths spiked on the hottest day of the summer, provisional official data shows.

There were 1,473 deaths on July 25 registered in England and Wales, rising from about 1,100-1,200 deaths per day around the same time, according to figures from the ONS.

July 25 saw temperatures reach 38.7C in Cambridge, breaking the record for the highest temperature ever recorded in the UK.

The ONS was looking at whether “killer heatwave” news headlines are backed up by the data in a release called ‘Do summer heatwaves lead to an increase in deaths?’

The stats body cautioned that the May to August 2019 data is “highly provisional” due to the amount of time it can take for deaths to be registered, meaning the recorded number of deaths per day is likely to increase as more deaths are registered.

HEALTH Heatwave

While comparisons with previous years cannot yet be made using the recent summer’s data, the statisticians compared the number of deaths per day in summer 2018 with the five-year average (2013-18).

The ONS said: “The comparatively high number of deaths occur mainly on days that are defined as heatwaves by Public Health England (PHE) in their deaths relating to heatwaves report.”

These spikes tended to be followed by periods of lower-than-average deaths, the ONS said.

The report went on: “This means that at a daily level, extreme heat seems to have an impact on the number of deaths, but across the summer period as a whole the number of deaths is similar to previous years.

“This could be because the most vulnerable people, for example, those with pre-existing respiratory or cerebrovascular diseases are more susceptible to death during heatwaves.”

Even when taking into account the heatwaves, the effects of winter on mortality are consistently greater than summer, the report added.



Another Public Health England (PHE) report analysed the number of death during the 2016 heatwave.  It found an excess of 908 deaths during the heatwave periods, when the Met Office had issued heatwave alerts.  See:

Public Health England, “PHE Heatwave Mortality Monitoring: Summer 2016”, June 2018. Available: https://assets.publishing.service.
gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/714933/PHE_heatwave_mortality_monitoring_report_2016.pdf

The executive summary to the document is as follows:

Executive summary:

“Heatwaves are predicted to increase in frequency and intensity as a result of climate change. The health impacts of these events can be significant, particularly for vulnerable populations when excess mortality can occur. England experienced several heatwaves in the summer 2016. This report summarises the excess deaths observed throughout the heatwaves of summer 2016.

The summer of 2016 saw 3 Level 3 heatwave alerts issued by the Met Office. Excess
daily mortality was estimated using baseline death registration data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS). The first heatwave occurred from 18 July to 22 July 2016, where there were an estimated 612 excess deaths observed above baseline in the 65+ year olds. The second heatwave occurred between 22 August to 26 August 2016, where there were an estimated 296 excess deaths observed above baseline amongst 65+ year olds. The third and final heatwave of the summer 2016 occurred between 12 September and 17 September 2016, where there were no significant excess deaths observed. This resulted in a total estimate of 908 excess deaths over the summer 2016
period.”

The Conclusion to the report is as follows:

Conclusions
England observed 3 heatwave periods in 2016, with significant excess mortality impact in the >65 year olds decreasing in size and geographical extent with each heatwave across the summer. No significant impact was seen in the <65 year olds and the impact on mortality of 908 excess deaths was less than seen in 2006 (2,323 deaths) and 2003 (2,234 deaths). The UK has had a heatwave plan since 2004, the importance of which continues to be highlighted year on year.”



 


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Met office expects surge in Carbon Dioxide levels in 2019

A report published in The Independent today (25th Jan 2019) states that scientists from the Met Office are predicting a surge this year (2019) in CO2 levels.  This is because of rising emissions due to the world’s continued use of fossil fuels will combine with reduced absorption of greenhouse gas by withering grasslands and forests, due to unprecedented heat.

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/environment/co2-levels-expected-to-rise-rapidly-in-2019-met-office-scientists-warn/ar-BBSHIZM?ocid=spartandhp#image=2

A further explanation about the prediction is as follows:

CO2 levels will be at a record high once again after emissions reached unprecedented levels last year, dashing hopes the world had finally hit “peak carbon”.

Besides fossil fuels pumping out the harmful gas, natural weather fluctuations will exacerbate the problem as they hamper the ability of carbon sinks to store it.

In 2019 an upward swing in tropical Pacific Ocean temperature will make many regions warmer and drier.

As drought sets in and plants dry out, they will be less capable of sucking CO2 from the atmosphere, and massive deforestation in places like the Amazon is making this problem even worse.

The new predictions were based on monitoring at the Mauna Loa observatory in Hawaii, which has registered a 30 per cent increase in the concentration of CO2 since 1958.

“Carbon sinks have saved us from what has already happened – the future rise would have been about double if it wasn’t for the sinks. So we are lucky they exist, to be honest,” Professor Richard Betts of the Met Office Hadley Centre told The Independent.

“But the sinks themselves are affected by the climate, and that’s an important thing because it shows that as climate change continues in the future it may affect their strength.”If emissions continue to rise, a major concern is that the carbon sinks currently storing carbon will cease to function, potentially leading to uncontrollable warming and a scenario dubbed “hothouse Earth”.a close up of a map: Forecast CO2 concentrations at the Mauna Loa station for 2019 (orange), along with previous forecast concentrations and the real observed data (Met Office)
© Provided by Independent Digital News & Media Limited Forecast CO2 concentrations at the Mauna Loa station for 2019 (orange), along with previous forecast concentrations and the real observed data (Met Office)
Last year Mauna Loa observatory recorded concentrations of over 410ppm in April, marking the highest level that had been reached in at least 800,000 years.This year CO2 levels in the atmosphere are likely to hit 411 parts per million (ppm).The Met Office forecast predicts the average increase in CO2 will be around 2.75ppm, the third largest annual rise on record, matched only by two years in which El Nino Pacific warming events took place.

CO2 is by far the biggest contributor to climate change, and global efforts to prevent environmental disaster largely focus on transitioning away from industries that pump it into the air.

Scientists welcomed the new data collected in Hawaii, describing it as “a call to innovate with rapid and radical responses” to the looming crisis.

“We need to reduce emissions from fossil fuel use, increase soil carbon sequestration to ‘lock-up’ CO2, decelerate deforestation and land conversion, and promote less polluting more sustainable agriculture,” said Professor Nick Ostle from Lancaster University, who was not involved in the Met Office research. “It’s a massive challenge but there are real opportunities to make an impact individually and globally.”

Further examples of the effects of global warming across the world are shown in a picture gallery in the original article.
An article in The Guardian on 25th January 2019 also carries this story but giving further detail and linking the predictions to an expected El Niño event in 2019:


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Met Office Report: UK heatwaves are lasting twice as long as they did 50 years ago

The first study of climate extremes in the UK by the Met Office shows the longer-term trend behind this summer’s prolonged spell of high temperatures and the weakening of winter frosts.

In line with numerous other research papers on the rise in global temperatures, it also highlights how weather patterns are being pushed off a normal path as a result of human emissions of carbon  dioxide and other greenhouse gases.

A warm spell is a run of at least six days for which daily maximum temperatures are sufficiently above average for the time of year.

See: https://www.theguardian.com/science/2018/nov/02/uk-heatwaves-lasting-twice-as-long-as-50-years-ago-met-office?utm_term=RWRpdG9yaWFsX0dyZWVuTGlnaHQtMTgxMTAy&utm_source=esp&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=GreenLight&CMP=greenlight_email

heatwaveUK2018

The full Met Office report can be found at: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/collaboration/ukcp

but is copied from their website, with included links, below:



The UK Climate Projections provides the most up-to-date assessment of how the climate of the UK may change over the 21st century. Find information to help with your climate change risk assessments and adaptation plans.

The UK Climate Projections is a climate analysis tool that forms part of the Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme which is supported by the Department of Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS) and the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra).

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