Many island nations are already experiencing rising sea levels due to global warming and the increased severity of cyclones due to climate change, for example: Maldives; Marshall Islands; Fiji; Solomon Islands, Philippines; Vanuatu, Tuvalu, Kiribati. The following table gives some data on this, provided by the University of Hawaii:
Also available is a graph of sea level rise in the Indian Ocean over the last century, available at: http://sri-lanka.wikidot.com/sealevel
On the United Nations Climate Change website, further studies are detailed using ICT to map possible changes, with particular reference to Tonga, Samoa, Vanuatu and Papua New Guinea. See:
UNFCCC are using innovative ICT solutions to help Pacific Island countries prepare for and adapt to sea level rise brought about by climate change. The project provides the fundamental data, skills and tools at-risk communities need to make planning decisions. It trains government decision makers to use online tools and flood maps to understand and mitigate the risks of sea level rise. A short piece of video posted on the above site sets out the dire situation these island nations face and the urgent need for action.
The ICT Study produced the following Key Facts:
- More than 10,000 buildings were identified at high risk of inundation within 80 years including schools, hospitals and critical infrastructure
- 195 people from the governments of Tonga, Samoa, Vanuatu and Papua New Guinea were trained on how to manage and use LiDAR data
- The Vanuatu Globe was a significant Open Data portal produced for the Vanuatu Government and set a new precedent for publically sharing sea level rise information
- Through the Vanuatu Globe, the project was able to help the 2015 Cyclone Pam recovery by providing critical map information which was accessed by more than 1,000 people a day within days of the cyclone
I will post on this blog details of how individual island groups have been affected by sea level rise, when it becomes available, though the global media tends to ignore the problem. It will be updated from time to time. Sections for individual island groups below as follows:
- Solomon Islands
- Marshall Islands
- UK Overseas territories
- Cape Verde
- Sri Lanka
- Cook Islands
Other island groups will be added when information becomes available about them. At present, not all sections are of equal length.
- 1. FIJI
In Fiji, several island villages have been swamped by the sea and need to relocate to higher ground. This has come at considerable cost to their government. The following posts give further details:
From the website of OCHA, the United Nations Office for the Co-ordination of Humanitarian Affairs (www.unocha.org):
Fiji: Building resilience in the face of climate change
2014, Vanua Levu, Fiji: The village of Vunidogoloa on Vanua Levu was the first community in Fiji to relocate because of coastal erosion and flooding attributed in part to climate change. Credit: Nansen Initiative
Increasingly severe weather patterns and rising sea levels have seen Fiji become the first country in the Pacific to relocate communities because of climate change.
Joana Tuisowaqa has lived in Narikoso village on Ono Island for 25 years. She says that, in the past five years, there has been a significant increase in the number of floods affecting her community.
“We asked for help from the government because water was coming right into the village and most houses were underwater during really high tides and storms,” she says. “People are scared and worried, but they can’t do much about it – they just live with it and know that moving is the only option.”
To the north of the small village of 70 people, ledges have been carved out of the hillside by army engineers. The new elevated site, a few hundred metres inland, is where the community will eventually relocate.
The Narikoso village relocation is supported by the Government of Fiji and a climate change programme run jointly by the Secretariat of the Pacific Community and the German group GIZ. A series of community consultations have been held to ensure all villagers understand the process.
For the villagers of Vunidogoloa on Vanua Levu, nearly 280 km north of Narikoso, relocation has loomed as a reality for more than 30 years. In February 2014 the village was the first in Fiji to relocate, shifting two kilometres inland after years of coastal erosion and flooding had made their homes inhospitable.
The head of the village, Sailosi Ramatu, says the move was the culmination of a process spanning several decades.
“It was a very emotional period for us as there was a lot of waiting, insecurity, and questioning.”
The Government confirmed the village would be relocated in 2006, but the relocation site was only selected in 2012, following years of consultation and discussion.
“It was not easy for the village community to relocate,” Sailosi explains. “This was especially true for older people that had lived in the village all their life, because the land is part of their culture and identity.”
Land linked to cultural heritage and identity
In Fiji there is a strong cultural connection to land that is closely tied to heritage and identity. The Pacific Conference of Churches (PCC) has been working with villagers to help them deal with the loss of their homelands.
“Because faith is such a large part of people’s lives in the Pacific, the church is well placed to assist communities in dealing with climate change challenges,” said Julia Edwards from PCC. “We offer accompaniment to affected communities and support to church leaders in dealing with the impacts.”
With a membership of 6.5 million people across the region, the PCC is also working with governments, civil society and regional organizations to develop a regional framework to protect Pacific Islanders displaced by climate change.
Small islands most vulnerable to climate change
According to Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), sea levels are expected to rise between 28 to 61 cm by 2100, with tropical storms and cyclones to become more frequent and intense.
With no criteria for small island developing states on when to abandon homes and relocate, Fiji is leading the way in the development of relocation guidelines. Over the coming decade, the Government intends to move more affected villages and has even offered to resettle other low-lying Pacific nations.
“Relocations are a last resort and just one part of disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation strategies to reduce the vulnerability and enhance the resilience of communities,” said Manasa Tagicakabau, Director of Fiji’s National Disaster Management Office. “The lessons learnt from the first successful relocations of Vunidogoloa and Narikoso villages can be applied to other relocation projects in Fiji and the region.”
Human displacement will rise globally
In a 2014 report, IPCC said that human displacement is expected to rise globally in coming decades as a consequence of climate change. While most displacement will likely occur inside countries, some people will seek protection and refuge abroad.
At present there are no provisions under international humanitarian law for people displaced by natural disasters or the effects of climate change to legally enter another country for protection and assistance. The Swiss and Norwegian-led Nansen Initiative is looking to address this gap.
The Nansen Initiative has been holding regional consultations with island states and regional civil-society organizations in the Pacific, as well as in South-East Asia, the Horn of Africa and Central America. Hannah Entwisle Chapuisat of the Nansen Initiative says the results of the consultations will be consolidated and discussed at a global inter-governmental meeting in 2015.
“We want to develop and build consensus on a protection agenda for people displaced by disasters and the effects of climate change,” she says. “It will be an action plan of what to do next and how to address current gaps. This includes looking at gaps in international law, addressing relocation, migration as adaptation and cross-border displacement, and sharing best practices from countries already dealing with these issues.”
“To fail to plan is to plan to fail”
Pacific consultations have stressed the importance of mitigating global greenhouse gas emissions and developing adaptation measures to prevent displacement and relocation. Recommendations from a regional inter-governmental consultation in the Cook Islands in 2013 and a civil society consultation in Fiji in 2014 included integrating human mobility issues within relevant national and regional laws and policies. They also recommended developing appropriate legal frameworks to address the protection needs of displaced populations.
For Hannah, the approach is simple: “We should do our utmost to build resilience and allow people to stay in their homes, but the risk of displacement and relocation is a Pacific reality. We must also have capacity to plan for and respond when movement is unavoidable.”
She is reminded of the words of the Hon. Henry Puna, Prime Minister of the Cook Islands, who concluded the consultation in Rarotonga with: “To fail to plan is to plan to fail”.
Planning for Community Relocations Due to Climate Change in Fiji Karen E. McNamara1 • Helene Jacot Des Combes. Int J Disaster Risk Sci (2015) 6:315–319. www.ijdrs.com
Abstract As a consequence of the impacts of climate change, some households and entire communities across the Pacific are making the complex and challenging decision to leave their homelands and relocate to new environments that can sustain their livelihoods. This short article charts how the residents of Vunidogoloa village in Fiji relocated in early 2014 to reduce their vulnerability to encroaching sea level and inundation events that regularly devastated the community. As a consequence of the Vunidogoloa relocation, this article also explores how the Fiji Government is planning for similar resettlement transitions, including vulnerability and adaptation assessments to develop a list of potential community relocations and the development of national relocation guidelines. This study draws from key informant interviews (n = 8) with government officials, as well as representatives from intergovernmental and local nongovernmental organizations, who are involved in the relocation issue. Given the speed at which these national, top-down initiatives are being forged and especially in light of the absence of any mention of relocation in Fiji’s 2012 climate change policy, careful and inclusive engagement across all scales and stakeholders, including communities ‘‘earmarked’’ for relocation, is paramount.
From an article in the New Scientist, 25th March 2017 by Nenad Jaric Dauenhauer:
This nation has been facing being swamped by the sea for many years and initially looked to find land on which to re-locate. Now, with a new government, under President Abdulla Yameen, they are no longer seeking new land to buy but have devised a new strategy, using engineering. They are renting out islands and using the money to build new ones, through the process of land reclamation. One of these artificial islands is called Hulhumale, near the capital Male. Sand is being pumped from surrounding atolls and deposited on shallow reefs. It is being fortified with walls up to 3 metres above sea level – the highest natural island is just 2.5 metres above the sea.
Some think that this could do damage to the surrounding reefs and are arguing for a more sustainable approach.
Caption in New Scientist “It’s build or sink for the Maldives”
3. SOLOMON ISLANDS
According to the Guardian (10th May 2016), five of the uninhabited islands in the Solomon archipelago have been lost to rising seas, with another six having large swathes of land and villages washed into the sea. Over the last 20 years, sea levels in the region have risen by 10 mm. In these six, entire villages have been destroyed and people forced to re-locate, as in Fiji. One was Nuatambu, home to 25 families, with 11 houses lost since 2011. Other people were forced to move from the island of Nararo.
4. MARSHALL ISLANDS
These Pacific Islands are very low lying and five of them have already disappeared due to rising seas and erosion. The remaining islands are regularly swamped by the sea. The island group includes Bikini Atoll, where the US dropped bombs in their trials of the hydrogen bomb. Many of the residents of the Marshall Islands have already been displaced, some settling in Arkansas in the US. This is one of the clearest injustices of climate change.
A video explains the situation from the islanders point of view:
Another video, posted on Huffington post, by a Marshalls islander, about the Paris agreement and Trump’s pull-out, can be seen here:
Huffington post also gives the following quote:
“We are all global warming victims. If we islanders survive, I promise you, the whole world will survive.” Bryant Zebedee, Marshall Islands
Also, on Huffington post is part three of their documentary “End of the Earth”.
Further photographs showing seas swamping the islands can be found on a Google search: Marshall Islands and climate change.
Relocation in other parts of the world
Recent reports suggest that coastal communities on mainland Alaska are also having to relocate due to rising seas.
The following story comes from Vice News: https://news.vice.com/article/doomed-by-climate-change-kiribati-wants-migration-with-dignity
The tiny nation of Kiribati will soon be underwater — here’s the plan to save its people
Kiribati, a tiny nation on a chain of 33 atolls and reef islands in the South Pacific, could be the first entire country eliminated by climate change. As seas rise, the islands are increasingly inundated by high tides, and islanders believe the sea will swallow their lands in less than a generation.
That has thrust former three-term president Anote Tong into the spotlight. Facing the reality of his country’s rapid disappearance, Tong spent his presidency making practical preparations for the relocation Kiribati’s 100,000 citizens out of their homeland to ensure that when it truly becomes unlivable they won’t become refugees.
Planning for what he calls “migration with dignity”, Tong purchased 6,000 acres of land in Fiji for the I-Kiribati to move to and relocated 75 citizens a year to New Zealand. But dignity, he maintained, also means having a homeland for the diaspora to remember, so he suggested raising one of the islands to protect it for posterity.
Together with the leaders of other Small Island Developing States, Kiribati advocated for a fossil free world by 2050 and, famously, ensured a Paris Agreement that aims for no more than 1.5 degrees of warming, half a degree less than the original draft. No longer president, Tong continues to be a voice for environmental protection and marginalized communities that are most vulnerable to climate change, as Arielle Duhaime-Ross discovered in a conversation in New York.
Arielle Duhaime-Ross: Tell us a little about Kiribati, what does climate change mean for the country?
Anote Tong: Barely two meters above sea level on average is the elevation above water. Very narrow strips of land, no mountains at all. So we definitely are most vulnerable and the front line of what is happening with climate change.
ADR: What are the human consequences of climate change on the country of Kiribati?
AT: We have communities who have to leave their villages because the village is no longer there. You have this church sitting out in the middle of the sea because the tide is in but this is where the village used to be. So the church is there because I asked the villagers to put a sea wall around it so that it can stay there as clear evidence of what is happening.
I was in one of the communities when the sea wall broke into a freshwater pond. I was not there after that but I’ve been advised that the food crops have died, the water lens has been destroyed. I can see that community relocating in the very near future.
ADR: The country of Kiribati on average is about 6 and half feet above the sea level right now is that correct?
AT: It would be about that but most of the communities, the people, when the tide is in, they are just living where the water is lapping, so whenever there is a king tide or a bit of the wind, then you get this waves coming over destroying properties and homes. We’ve had flooding where we’ve not had flooding in the past. These are the things we are experiencing today.
ADR: When people think about flooding, we think about houses being destroyed and people having to relocate, but are there other consequences to flooding?
AT: So when waves top over on the land you get many things happening. One being the erosion so you get destruction of property. Second, you get the water destroying the water lens because we get our water from underground water. This is what we live on, we survive on, we don’t have rivers. So this is where we draw our potable water. So once that gets destroyed, it has implications on the health of our people because they’d be drinking bad water.
ADR: Can anything be done to save Kiribati?
AT: I think there is. I think it’s very doable, but the question is where we get the resources to do it. Give me a few billion dollars and there’s no question in my mind that there’s quite a lot that we could do. I’ve been quoted as talking about floating islands. We’d have to depend on the international community and this is what I’ve been advocating. I just come back from Europe trying to advocating possible solutions to the challenge that we face because if nothing is done, then according to the projections of the government panel on climate change, we will be gone.
ADR: How long does Kiribati have?
AT: We think in 30 to 50 years something very drastic, if not before then.
ADR: Can you talk about the concept of migration with dignity?
AT: We have to acknowledge the brutal reality that some of our people have to relocate. So knowing that, we don’t want to be just sitting there waiting for it to happen and do nothing about it. This is why I’ve been advocating this “migration with dignity” because I’ve always resented the way are being referred to as potential “climate refugees.” We don’t want to be refugees. It’s a bad term.
ADR: Why is that a bad term?
AT: It’s undignifying, very undignifying. We would have lost our homes, we don’t want to lose our dignity, we don’t want to lose our pride. If we train our people and they become skilled, then they would migrate with dignity and on merit, they would not be people running away from something. They would be migrating, relocating as people with skills as members of communities they go into, even leaders, I hope. We don’t want to be the category of people that want to go to other countries and are being resisted, being pushed away. This is happening, we can see this, we should be learning, taking lessons from what’s happening in Europe. In that part of the world and the Pacific we get people wanting to migrate to Australia they have been put into camps.
ADR: Kiribati has bought some land in Fiji, are you hoping most of your citizens will end up there?
AT: Fiji has been the only country that’s come forward, stepped forward when nobody else would. And they’ve said that if and when Kiribati and Tuvalu should need somewhere to go in the event of sea level rise, Fiji is willing to accommodate. Now that has been the kind of compassionate response that I expected of people because I believe people to be compassionate. So that is very human, very merciful, I must say.
A further report about the predicament that Kiribati is facing can be found at the following link published in November 2017:
New Zealand has become the first developed nation to offer residency to climate refugees, in an initial trial experiment of 100 Pacific islanders per year. The PRI article gives a Kiribati response to this offer.
For countries across the Pacific, like the low-lying nation of Kiribati, New Zealand’s announcement comes as a welcome gesture of regional solidarity. Coastal erosion and freshwater contamination are already altering the lives of Kiribati’s 110,000 citizens. The altitude of the most of the country’s islands, after all, is on average just six feet above sea level.
In South Tarawa, the capital island of Kiribati, you’ll hear a strong reaction to the concept of climate migration. Many outright reject the label “climate refugee” in Kiribati. Some argue that it casts I-Kiribati citizens as victims of a foregone climate conclusion. Others believe the label doesn’t assign responsibility to high-emitting countries — and eclipses their fight to protect their homes.
“It’s the last option. And if it’s the last option, let’s do everything we can now to remain in Kiribati.”
Kiribati’s government is currently implementing various adaptation measures, including sea walls, artificial land reclamation and rainwater tanks. These efforts, along with staunch civil society campaigns, aim to avoid a scenario in which I-Kiribati citizens must be forced to use New Zealand’s proposed visa option.
The nine islands of Tuvalu are located in the middle of the Pacific. Funafuti, the main island and capital, is at 1000 km North of Fiji. Tuvalu became, notably thanks to the climate conference in Copenhagen in 2009, the international symbol of the consequences of climate change. Sea-level rise, one of the most known consequences, is a major threat for Tuvalu, considering that this countrys highest point is 4,5 meters over sea-level (whereas most of the land is way below that point). The consequences of climate change will have and already have considerable impacts on these islands.
In the National Adaptation Programme of Actions (NAPA), the government of Tuvalu has identified seven main and immediate threats for the livelihoods of Tuvaluans. These seven adverse effects are presented here:
Coastal: Following the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, sea-level has already risen by 20 centimetres between 1870 and nowadays. Considering the low-lying position of Tuvalu, this trend is going to dangerously affect the islands. The objective of the government is to increase the resilience of coastal areas and settlement to climate change.
Agricultural: Due to sea-level rise, the ground of Tuvalu is prone to increasing salinization, threatening the habitats of some plants, such as pulaka and coconut trees. Considering that Pulaka traditionally is the staple food in Tuvalu, the adaptation strategy is to introduce salt-tolerant pulaka.
Water: The islands of Tuvalu have progressively lost their fresh groundwater resources, not only due to sea-level rise, but also because of human pollution. In consequence, Tuvaluans only rely on rainwater storage to meet their needs. However, the seasons on Tuvalu are getting irregular and difficult to forecast, leading to droughts and water shortage. In order to ameliorate this situation, the adaptation plan recommends improved and increased water collection and water conservation techniques.
Health: Vectors breeding grounds will have an increasing availability in the next years and decades because of higher tides, inundations and tropical cyclones. The increased availability will exacerbate the exposure of the Tuvaluans to water borne diseases and will increase the epidemic potential of the islands.
Fisheries: Climate change, heating the ocean water, impacts the corals and consequently the marine fauna. The biodiversity of the ocean, and also, in the case of Tuvalu, of the atolls will decrease. In order to prevent this irreparable lost of species due to heat, fragile ecosystems have to be protected.
Fisheries: The biodiversity of the atoll and particularly in the shallower water in the lagoon, will not be the only affected by the impacts of the rising surface water temperature. The rising temperatures will also considerably reduce the shellfish and available fish resources. Considering that the Tuvaluans, on average, eat 500 grams of fish per capita every day, a reduction of the resource will have a disastrous impact of the livelihoods and, thus, also on development.
Disaster: Tuvalu has been increasingly exposed to tropical storms and cyclones since 1990. Between 1970 and 1990, only three tropical storms, hurricanes or cyclones struck Tuvalu. However, between 1990 and 2005, the islands experienced thirteen similar meteorological events. In order to ease the impacts of the population, the country will have to implement of disaster alert and response potential system.
The population density of Tuvalu is high, ranking 13th in the world compared with other nations. It is a small piece of land, only 26km2 with a population of 11 000 people – a population density of about 423 persons per square kilometre. However, the situation on Tuvalu is not even. On the capital island, Funafuti, more than 5 000 people live on only 2,4km2 (as the islanders have gathered on just one of the islets, Fogafale, the real area is even smaller, about 1,4 km2). In other terms, it means that close to 2 000 persons live on each square kilometre of the atoll; and “only” 260 for the outer islands.
The Seychelles are already suffering from coastal erosion and experts are saying that the entire archipelago could disappear under the sea by 2050. Like many island groups, they are an important tourist destination.
The following video link gives a picture of how climate change is affecting the Seychelles:
A tourist beach in the Seychelles
However, recent reports suggest that this island nation is now a global leader in cutting greenhouse gases:
It is sad therefore to hear a new report from Rainforest Rescue which gives a less satisfying story of government plans for part of this island. It is copied here:
“The government of the Seychelles clearly understands the value of unspoiled nature: it recently created two vast marine protected areas, an expanse of ocean the size of Great Britain.
One protected area centers around Aldabra, an uninhabited coral atoll that is home to more than 100,000 giant tortoises and a veritable riot of marine biodiversity.
But now, the Seychelles government wants to let India build a military base for its navy on a neighboring island — within the actual protected area. Noise, pollution and oil spills would be virtually inevitable. Paradise may soon be lost.
Parliament will be voting soon on whether to give India the green light. Please tell the Seychelles not to go ahead with this crime against nature!”
Further details can be obtained from Rainforest Rescue at: https://www.rainforest-rescue.org/
The following piece is copied from:
which concludes that Metro Manila may soon be permanently under water.
“As rains from the latest typhoon “Gener” (international name: Saola) hit Manila, waves rising out of Manila Bay left much of iconic Roxas Boulevard flooded, including the United States Embassy which was forced to close Wednesday, the 1st of August 2012. By then the death toll had already reportedly risen to 14 and more than 150,000 forced from their homes as vast shantytowns across the city were inundated.
Just less than two weeks ago, the 21st July, Manila had already been “turned into a water-world” after heavy rains pounded the metropolis for hours.
Flooding in Manila seems to be occurring more frequently nowadays — and becoming more consistently severe. The degree to which the last couple of days’ rains which led to school interruptions and impacted workers’ productivity will damage the already fragile social and economic fabric of the Philippines will be the subject of much conjecture. But the real question is, will this sort of thing be increasingly the norm?
Manila was, in fact, cited in a 2009 report featured in TreeHugger.com as being one of the big Asian “mega-cities” that will likely be the worst-affected by climate change.
- An increase in sea temperature could
lead to loss of fish stocks, seabirds and marine animals.
- Sea level rise could threaten beaches where fur seals and elephant seals breed and the tussac grass communities where the endemic South Georgia pipit lives and breeds.
- Glacial retreat would increase the habitat of invasive species, including rats, mice and reindeer, which would endanger the pipit and lead to loss of habitat for certain burrowing petrel species.
- Bermuda’s mangrove forests are threatened by salt water inundation due to
rising sea levels.
- Turtle nesting sites are subject to erosion from tropical storms and hurricanes that
affect the island.
- Bermuda’s coral system is distinctive for being the most northerly of its kind in the
world and is among the more geographically isolated reefs. The fate of this reef system is linked to those of the Caribbean, which seed them.
The Caribbean – Anguilla
- Depletion of fish stocks.
- Beach erosion, compounded by development in the coastal zone.
- A longer dry season and decreased availability of water could affect
- Sea level rise will increase the risk of salt-water contamination of
rivers and salt-water intrusion of ground water.
- Increased hurricane and storm intensity could disrupt sanitation and
sewerage disposal systems as well as cause damage to coastal
communities and infrastructure.
The Caribbean – British Virgin Islands
- Coral reefs are vulnerable to bleaching episodes from warmer seas and stress from
- Low-lying Anegada is vulnerable to the effects of sea level rise and to storm surges and wave action during hurricanes.
The Caribbean – Cayman Islands
- Coral bleaching.
- Beach erosion and destruction of turtle nesting sites.
- As low-lying islands, the Cayman islands are vulnerable to the effects of sea level rise and to storm surges and wave action during hurricanes.
The Caribbean – Montserrat
- Changes in coastal vegetation.
- Coral bleaching
The Caribbean – Turks and Caicos Islands
- Sea level rise will increase the risk of coastal erosion and salt-water intrusion of ground water
- This will jeopardise agricultural production in and around coastal communities.
South Atlantic – Ascension Island
- Increase in sea temperature.
- Sea level rise will adversely affect nesting beaches and could cause a drop in sea turtle nesting success to nest inundation.
- Changes in regional seasonal rainfall patterns could advance the spread of invasive plant species and increase erosion.
South Atlantic – St. Helena
- Fish stocks and fishing industry at high risk.
- Increased risk of floods, droughts, and soil erosion.
- Research points to a strong warming trend (2°C over 60 years) and a slight decrease in rainfall that could lead to a reduction in water supplies.
- Altitudinal shifts in vegetation zones. Current ecological imbalances could become even more marked.
South Atlantic – Falkland Islands
- Cooler, less saline water may affect distribution and abundance of the main inshore fauna and flora.
- There is need for more research and data gathering. To date, little is known about the effects of climate change on plant communities or about what it means for whale and dolphin communities.
South Atlantic – Tristan da Cunha and Gough Islands
- Increased threat from invasive species (e.g. rats and mice) due to warmer temperatures that allow them to thrive and displace more vulnerable native species.
- Tristan Albatross (Diomedea dabbenena), already considered ‘critically endangered’ by mouse predation, would be further threatened.
- Changes in oceanic circulation patterns due to warming sea temperatures could affect some fish species and marine predators (seabirds and seals)
- An increase in storm severity puts the sole harbour on Tristan da Cunha, the only means of access, at risk.
South Pacific – Pitcairn Islands
- Changes in rainfall and salt-water intrusion will affect agricultural production.
- The tuna fisheries in the western and central Pacific could collapse.
- Diarrhoeal and vector borne diseases are expected to increase.
- Climate change could also increase the incidence of ciguatera poisoning.
- Variations in rainfall will affect water supplies in some Pacific islands.
- Coral reefs are also likely to be affected by bleaching events.
10. CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
- the southern group, which are high volcanic islands;
- the northern group, which are mainly coral atolls made up of circular sand cays around a lagoon.
The northern islands are increasingly vulnerable to rising sea-levels. In 1997 almost half the population of the island of Manihiki was relocated to Raratonga and then to New Zealand. Standing barely four metres above sea-level, the island has become increasingly vulnerable to storm surges and coastal flooding.
With a rise of 4mm per year since 1993, the sea level around the Cook Islands is increasing more quickly than the global average of 2.8-3.6mm per year.
Local farmers have noticed changes in weather patterns over the last few years, with longer and milder winters and the rainy seasons are unpredictable.
Local fishermen such as Ngametua Tangatakino are also feeling the effects of climate change.
“I’ve really noticed the changes in the ocean currents around the island. The current patterns are unusual, they switch direction abruptly and sometimes go in circles, its hard to know where to put my line down”.
He works as a marine officer with the government and, in 2010 he spent six months recording tidal patterns around Mangaia. He found that the average low tide mark had become significantly higher. Now, it is rare that the reef surrounding the island is exposed at low tide, denying local woman the opportunity to forage for crabs and snails – a traditional mainstay of the local diet. Other fishermen agree that things are changing. Fish are not coming in season, tides are changing and ocean fauna is disappearing. It has been suggested that the absence of certain fish species is due to the increasing acidification in the waters surrounding the Cook Islands, which has led to the disappearance of seaweed in the lagoon, disrupting the food chain. A scientific survey conducted in 2010 revealed that seaweed stocks had almost disappeared from the deep ocean surrounding Mangaia.
In recent years there has also been an emerging pattern of more intense storms and higher category cyclones. Early in 2005 – the Cooks experienced five cyclones in one week and, in 2010, the island of Aitutaki experienced one of the worst cyclones in memory when 80 per cent of the houses on the island lost their roofs.
A detailed study of climate change in the Cook Islands was conducted by the Australian Government in 2011 and a comprehensive report, with data and graphs can be found at:
The main conclusions were:
- Temperatures have warmed and will continue to warm with more very hot days in the future;
- Annual rainfall since 1950 has increased at Penrhyn in the Northern Cook Islands but there are no clear trends in rainfall at Rarotonga in the Southern Cook Islands.
Rainfall patterns are projected to change over this century with more extreme rainfall days and less frequent droughts;
- By the end of this century projections suggest decreasing numbers of tropical cyclones but a possible shift towards more intense categories;
- Sea level near the Cook Islands has risen and will continue to rise throughout this century;
- Ocean acidification has been increasing in the Cook Islands’ waters. It will continue to increase and threaten coral reef ecosystems.
Further details of this initiative, which includes 15 Pacific Island Countries can be found at:
This group of islands is also at risk of sea level rise. An animated picture of this, according to the degree of global warming, can be seen at: