threegenerationsleft

human activity and the destruction of the planet


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An obsession with GDP and economic growth is acting to worsen climate change

An obsession with GDP and economic growth is acting to worsen climate change.

A number of progressive economists have been pointing out the facts relating to this statement for the last few years.  Yet, political leaders across the world still seem to be deaf to their words and obsessed with a need to find ways to fuel economic growth through a market economy and promoting austerity, and then praise themselves for doing it, even though their austerity measures affect the poorest in society and damage the environment.  It is part of an adherence to a competitive world, in which one’s own country must come out on top.  This blinkered approach encourages the manufacturing industry, much of which uses fossil fuels, and trading across the globe, in order to balance the difference between imports and exports – what is termed ” a balanced economy”.  I deal with the issue in Chapter 7 of my book, which can be found elsewhere on this website.

fioramonti

In the UK, this approach was perhaps pioneered by Margaret Thatcher and her crony in the US, Ronald Reagan.  But it was later picked up with enthusiasm by Tony Blair and developed further, until it became an obsession with economists.  According to George Monbiot, they are using the wrong mathematics and this approach is both outdated and harmful to the environment. See:

George Monbiot (2015) Guardian 24th November 2015.  “Consume more, conserve more: Sorry but we just can’t do both.”

A number of progressive economists have been saying a similar thing for a number of years.  Perhaps the late Richard Douthwaite was the first to say this in his book “The Growth Illusion” (1999) but there have been others too:  Molly Scott Cato MEP (“Green Economics”), Kate Raworth (Doughnut Economics and also “Old economics is based on false ‘laws of physics’ – new economics can save us” Guardian 6th April 2017), Ian Fletcher (“Free Trade Doesn’t Work”), Paul Krugman  (“How did economists get it so wrong?” in the New York Times), Pat Conaty and the New Economics Foundation among others (full details of each in my references section on this website).

The current UK Shadow Chancellor, John McDonnell MP, also wrote a booklet about this in June 2007, whilst a member of Tony Blair’s “market economy party”.  It is entitled “Another World is Possible” and shows amazing foresight about the consequences of market economy politics, which we are living with now. He was courageous to write this, at a time when Blair was pursuing another path.

AWIP

“Another World is Possible”  (2007) is published by the Labour representation Committee, PO Box 2378, London E5 9QU.  ISBN 978-0-9555771-0-9.

This excellent booklet includes a section entitled “A Planet Plundered for Profit” in which McDonnell states that “we cannot tackle climate change unless we address the system which has caused it…….the wasteful consumption of the wealthier nations has brought environmental impacts, which…. disproportionately affect the poorest countries….The UK has a wealth of natural resources that lend themselves to renewable energy production which, once set up, are low cost to run and cause no pollution… a programme of investment in renewable would not only create thousands of jobs in engineering and manufacturing sectors that have declined in recent years….”

According to Kate Raworth in her Guardian article, “Things are not going well in the world’s richest economies. Most OECD countries are facing their highest levels of income inequality in 30 years, while generating ecological footprints of a size that would require four, five or six planet Earths if every country were to follow suit. These economies have, in essence, become divisive and degenerative by default. Mainstream economic theory long promised that the solution starts with growth – but why does that theory seem so ill-equipped to deal with the social and ecological fallout of its own prescriptions?”

In May 2017, Lorenzo Fioramonti*, Professor of Political Economy, University of Pretoria, wrote an article for The Conversation, republished in Quartz. He opens: “GDP as a measure of growth fails to account for damages caused to the environment by industrial activity”. In his new book “Wellbeing Economy: Success in a World Without Growth” he points out that the “growth first” rule has dominated the world since the early 20th century. No other ideology has ever been so powerful: the obsession with growth even cut through both capitalist and socialist societies”.  He asks the question, “What exactly is growth” and further expounds the idea that it is not a silver bullet to success.  Further details of this concept in his book are summarised in:

https://britain2020.wordpress.com/2017/07/04/fioramonti-growth-is-dying-as-the-silver-bullet-for-success-this-may-be-good-thing/

Kate Raworth has also circulated her latest blog, which contains a video, which tries to explain the issue in easily understandable terms, using puppets.  She hopes that this will be used in secondary schools and in teaching economics undergraduates that the GDP/growth model does not work:

Economic Man vs. Humanity: a puppet rap battle

by Kate Raworth

An economist, a songwriter, and a puppet-maker walked into a recording studio. What do you think came out?. . . An economics puppet rap battle, of course.

One of the most dangerous stories at the heart of 20th century economics is the depiction of humanity as rational economic man. In my book Doughnut Economics I decided he needed a portrait so I drew him, standing alone, with money in his hand, ego in his heart, a calculator in his head and nature at his feet. He hates work, he loves luxury and he knows the price of everything.

Now here’s the most fascinating (and unnerving) thing I discovered while researching the history and influence of this character. The more that economics students learn about him – from Year 1 to Year 2 to Year 3 of their studies – the more they say they value traits such as self-interest and competition over traits such as altruism and collaboration.

The implication? Who we tell ourselves we are shapes who we become.

Over the past year I have been contacted by many economics teachers around the world – especially those in secondary schools – who want to encourage their students to critique this text-book model and offer them a far more nuanced understanding of human behaviour.

So that got me thinking…

I teamed up with the brilliant puppet designer Emma Powell and the ingenious musician Simon Panrucker and, with funding from the Network for Social Change (big thanks, folks!), we created this video – Economic Man vs Humanity: a puppet rap battle.

We’d love to see it in use in classrooms, conferences, reading groups, community groups, and shared widely on social media, on web platforms, on teaching resource sites.

If you are a teacher, please do use it to start a debate in your classroom (the video ends with a question for that very reason). Download the complete lyrics of the rap, and if your students want to dive further into the back story and future possibilities of Rational Economic Man, then I recommend Chapter 3 of Doughnut Economics, which was the basis for the whole project.

If you are a student, please do share the video with your fellow future economists, get your teacher involved, and help kick off a much-needed discussion.

And if you host a web discussion, a new economics resource site, a community network, or a teachers’ forum, you are very welcome to feature the film on your site – we’d love to hear what you do with it.

So sit back and enjoy the Puppet Rap Battle – sing along, pass it on, and let’s say farewell to Rational Economic Man. Today’s students know that it’s time to create a better portrait of who we are for 21st century economics.”

Kate Raworth | 5 September 2018 at 10:14 | URL: https://wp.me/p3sUHn-Bb

 

And yet, despite all of these highly knowledgeable progressive economists writing at length about it, the old way of seeking “growth, growth and more growth” still persists. The present conservative government in the UK has used this maxim extensively over the last 10 years, and even used it as a hammer to batter the opposition with – that they are weak on the economy – a deceitful myth that a gullible public unwittingly believed, when voting at the ballot box – until June 2017, that is.  And the present Chancellor constantly brings statistical data to parliament, in an attempt to show that their economic austerity policies are working.  What he does not say is that they are contributing to climate change, as well as making many marginalised people much worse off.  Indeed, they seem to have abandoned any pretence of working towards attaining the targets set by the Paris Agreement in 2015.  George Monbiot has slated their 25-year environment plan, as “A Grand Plan to do Nothing”. See: http://www.monbiot.com

This last year, we have seen some of the extreme consequences of climate change:

  • excessive heatwaves this summer;
  • a prolonged unusual freeze-up last winter;
  • last year having the most violent and numerous hurricanes;
  • island nations losing some of their territory due to sea level rise;
  • the last few years, global temperatures being the hottest ever on record.

Some of these issues have been described in more detail in other recent blogs on this website.

Just recently, I have read an article by Alan Cottey, a member of Scientists for Global Responsibility: “Environment change, economy change and reducing conflict at source”, just published in AI & Society, where he sets out alternatives.  Here is an extract from the Abstract:

At a time when fossil fuel burning, nationalism, ethnic and religious intolerance, and other retrograde steps are being promoted, the prospects for world peace and environmental systems stability may appear dim. Exactly because of this is it the more important to continue to examine the sources of conflict. A major obstacle to general progress is the currently dominant economic practice and theory, which is here called the economy-as-usual, or economics-as-usual, as appropriate. A special obstacle to constructive change is the language in which economic matters are usually discussed. This language is narrow, conservative, technical and often obscure. The rapid changes in the environment (physical and living) are largely kept in a separate compartment. If, however, the partition is removed, economics-as-usual, with its dependence on growth and its widening inequality, is seen to be unsustainable. Radical economic change, for better or worse, is to be expected. Such change is here called economy change. The change could be for the better if it involved an expansion of the concept of economics itself, along the lines of oikonomia, a modern revival of a classical Greek term for management or household. In such an expanded view, not everything of economic value can be measured. It is argued that economics-as-usual is the source of much strife. Some features are indicated of a less conflictual economy—more just, cooperative and peaceful. These features include a dignified life available to all people as of right, the word ‘wealth’ being reconnected with weal, well and well-being, and ‘work’ being understood as including all useful activity.”

The whole article can be found at:

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00146-018-0816-x


I think that many of us have stood on the sidelines of this issue for long enough now.  It is time for the progressive economists I have named above, and those cited in Cottey’s article, to come together, in formulating together a new economic theory, with a clear structure, that takes care of the environment, does not increase the gap between rich and poor, and which reduces conflict and competition between nations.  They have written separately for too long.  Now, we are looking for a new partnership, a new structure – a really new economics, based on compassion and equality, not austerity, which will also work towards reducing the damaging effects of climate change.


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Disappearing arctic polar ice cap – can this affect the Gulf Stream and the Jet Stream?

In Chapter 1 of my book, I provide evidence that the arctic ice is shrinking.  This is shown graphically in Figure 14 (page 34), which I reproduced, with acknowledgements to Andy Lee Haveland.  Because the size of the arctic ice varies throughout the year, and summer to winter, it is important to take measurements throughout the seasons of the year.

The figure below, published in my book with permission, gives an idea of what has been happening between 1979 and 2016.  arctic-death-spiral

Each colour represents a different month of the year and the difference in the size of the ice throughout the year shows how much it has shrunk during the period 1979-2016.  The stark difference between 1979 and 2016 can be seen best at the top of the graph.

Now, NASA has produced a time-lapse video showing the movement of the ice as it pulses through the seasons.  The video is posted on YouTube with this description, “Arctic sea ice has not only been shrinking in surface area in recent years, it’s becoming younger and thinner as well.”  The video can also be seen on the following website:

NASA releases time-lapse of the disappearing Arctic polar ice cap

This last winter (2017-18) has been very much colder in the UK and other parts of Europe and this has led to some people denying that global warming is happening.  The crazy thing is that, whilst Britain was in the grip of a lengthy period of freezing weather and large falls of snow, at the north pole it was warmer than usual, reaching melting point in some places, with temperatures up to 20 degrees higher than normal.  Similar temperature anomalies were also reported for some of the US and Canada.

The reality is that this phenomenon is all part of the unstable weather patterns that are being caused by climate change.

Now, in the latest issue of New Scientist (No. 3169, 17th March 2018), Colin Barras describes new research, which might suggest that changes in the North Atlantic current (the northern part of the Gulf Stream), could result in a shut-down, leading to even greater sea-level rise on Atlantic coasts and more intense droughts in Africa.

https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg23731693-200-polar-melt-may-shut-down-the-atlantic-current-that-warms-europe/

Marilena Oltmanns and her colleagues have studied the salinity of sea water and its temperature in the area just south of Greenland (Irminger Sea) between 2002 and 2014.  They found that, in summer, the sea had much warmer temperatures and lower salinity.  This would suggest that fresh water (melt from Greenland and the Arctic) is flooding into this area and affecting the currents and convection process.  This was more likely to happen after particularly mild winters.  In 2010-11, conditions were mild, resulting in an accumulation of fresh water in the sea, 40% of it still there even after the end of winter.  These findings are reported in Nature Climate Change, doi.org/cmbw.

Oltmanns believes that, if several warm years occur in succession, there would be a build up of fresh water, impeding the process of convection.  This might result in a shut-down of the North Atlantic current.  This might bring about the end of the North Atlantic’s relatively mild climate and the ameliorating effects of the Gulf Stream.

Other writers and researchers are proposing other impacts too, as far reaching as Africa and South America, though at this time much of it is still speculation.

Further information about the North Atlantic current can be found in Wikipedia, from which the following diagram has been taken.

2000px-North_Atlantic_currents.svg

 

Could this mean that the prolonged freezing period experienced in the UK and Europe last winter could become the norm?

Since writing the above, I have come across a review of scientific articles about the state of the Arctic ice cap, written by Vanessa Spedding.  It can be found on the Scientists for Global Responsibility website, as follows:

http://www.sgr.org.uk/resources/state-arctic-heightens-focus-climate-policy

The main conclusion of this review is that the presence of a summer ice-free Arctic can be an indicator of how well the world is sticking to the 1.5 degree Paris Agreement target for global warming.  There is a very low chance of an ice-free Arctic at 1.5 degrees but at 2 degrees, the chance rises to 39%.  At 3 degrees, 73%.  Full details of this work can be seen in an article by Screen and Williamson at:

11. Screen JA, Williamson D (2017). Ice-free Arctic at 1.5 °C? Nature Climate Change, vol.7, pp.230–231. DOI: 10.1038/nclimate3248.  https://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v7/n4/full/nclimate3248.html

Another 15 articles are cited in Spedding’s review. One of them, from Prof. Jennifer Francis of the Institute of Marine and Coastal Sciences at Rutgers University in the USA, suggests that there is a link between a warming Arctic and a disrupted jet stream, with effects on Northern hemisphere weather patterns.

Now, in August 2018, a report in The Guardian suggests that the oldest and thickest sea ice in the Arctic has started to break up for the first time ever, opening waters north of Greenland that are normally frozen the year round – an area that is often called “the last ice area”.  It is believed that this has occurred because of the abnormal heatwave in northern Europe in the summer of 2018. In the past, the ice in this region has packed together and is over 4 metres thick, with ridges up to 20 metres.

Full details about this and other concerns of climate scientists can be seen at:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/aug/21/arctics-strongest-sea-ice-breaks-up-for-first-time-on-record?CMP=twt_a-science_b-gdnscience

ANTARCTICA

As regards Antarctica, the situation is just as grim, though different from the Arctic. A British-led study, using satellite tracking, showed that a region of ice the size of Greater London vanished from the edge of Antarctica between 2010 and 2016.

The 1,463 square kilometres of underwater ice at the base of the Antarctic ice sheet melted under the influence of warm ocean water currents. Scientists demonstrated how the massive ice sheet is retreating as its edges, fed by a multitude of glaciers, are eroded.

See: https://www.aol.co.uk/news/2018/04/02/antarctic-ice-area-the-size-of-london-lost-in-six-years/?ncid=webmail

The lead researcher, Dr Hannes Konrad, from the University of Leeds, said: “Our study provides clear evidence that retreat is happening across the ice sheet due to ocean melting at its base, and not just at the few spots that have been mapped before now. This retreat has had a huge impact on inland glaciers, because releasing them from the sea bed removes friction, causing them to speed up and contribute to global sea level rise.”

The biggest changes were seen in West Antarctica, where more than a fifth of the ice sheet had retreated across the sea floor faster than the general pace of deglaciation.

The findings have been published on 2nd April 2018 in the journal Nature Geoscience. See: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-018-0082-z

Previous studies had indicated an expansion of sea ice in the antarctic region but this latest study used grounding lines as indicators of ice-sheet instability.

 

Further posts will be added here as they emerge.


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Mass deaths of some species being witnessed – is this the prelude to a mass extinction of species?

In my book, I mention research carried out by scientists, in which they predict that we could be facing a sixth mass extinction of species within three generations of our time.  Indeed, it is this report which was behind the title of my book – “Three Generations Left?”  I give further details of this research report in chapter 1 of my book, which can be found on this website.

Then, in the news today, is the discovery of thousands of dead starfish – and other sea creatures – washed up on beaches in Kent.  People are speculating that the deaths have been caused by the intensely freezing weather conditions we have been experiencing in the UK over the last week. Indeed, there was a report of the sea freezing around the Isle of Sheppey, also in Kent.  The sea in this area is probably less salty than elsewhere, because several (freshwater) rivers flow into the sea here (Medway, Swale, Thames) but it is still a significant event for the sea around the British Isles to freeze.  At the same time, further north in the Arctic Circle, the ice was melting.

A similar mass death event occurred in 2014 off Mexico and Alaska, when millions of starfish died there, though this would appear to have been caused in that case by warmer seas and an outbreak of parvovirus in the starfish.

Dead starfish on a Kent beach

In a parallel theme, an article just over a week ago, in The Observer (Science and Tech section) by David Derbyshire, mentions a mass death event in Kazakstan in 2015, when  200,000 Saiga antelopes suddenly died in the grassy plains where they were feeding. This represented 60 per cent of the global population of Saiga antelopes and, as a result, they are now critically endangered. Derbyshire questions whether this mass death event was caused by climate change.  Other articles about this suggest that the animals died of hemorrhagic septicaemia, caused by a bacterium called Pasteurella multocida, which was  isolated in tissue samples from the dead animals.  This pathogen normally lives harmlessly in the respiratory tract of these antelopes but it appears to have run amok in 2015, causing the mass deaths.

Further details can be found in:

https://www.theguardian.com/science/animal-magic/2016/apr/14/mass-death-saiga-antelope-kazakhstan-bacterial-infection

Mass mortality events (MMEs) – single catastrophic incidents that wipe out vast numbers of a species – are on the increase and may be triggered by climate change.  Other species that are affected by MMEs include starfish, bats, sardines and coral reefs.  The scientist who studied the 2015 antelope event, Richard Kock, published an article in Science Advances, which concluded that a rise in temperature, combined with an increase in humidity, had stimulated the bacteria to pass into the blood stream, where it caused blood poisoning and death.

In 2014, during a heatwave in Australia, 45,000 fruit bats (flying foxes) died on one hot day.

Climate change is leading to more extreme weather events and it is in these circumstances that we may observe more MMEs.  It would appear that some organisms live harmlessly within a species but, in extreme weather conditions, may rapidly increase, causing death an possible extinction.

In The Guardian on 22nd March 2018 is an article by Patrick Barkham, which reports that there has been a catastrophic decline in France’s farmland birds (by 55% over three decades).  This includes skylarks, meadow pipits, partridges.  These declines mirror similar reductions in bird populations across Europe, whilst those species which have been able to adapt to urban areas have not declined.  The conclusion is that farmland is turning into a desert induced by increased use of pesticides.