Hot on the heels of the news that inhabitants of a Caribbean island being re-settled on the mainland of Panama, comes a story from Australia. Tuvalu is a very low-lying chain of islands, not too far from the east coast of Australia, which have long been at risk of flooding due to sea-level rise:
Now a report has appeared in the press to say that Australia is to offer permanent residency to Tuvalu’s population of 11,800 people, as part of a far-reaching treaty with this small Pacific nation.
Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, unveiling the treaty with his Tuvaluan counterpart, Kausea Natano, at the Pacific Islands Forum in the Cook Islands on Friday, described it as “the most significant agreement between Australia and a Pacific Island nation ever”.
Mr Natano said: “This partnership stands as a beacon of hope, signifying not just a milestone, but a giant leap forward in our joint mission to ensure regional stability, sustainability and prosperity.”
Since 1998, the World Wildlife Fund’s ‘Living Planet Report’ has been tracking the state of nature globally.
This piece has been copied from WWF Australia’s website:
This year’s edition is the most comprehensive finding to date and provides a platform for the best science, cutting-edge research and diverse voices on the impact of humans on the health of our Earth. More than 50 experts from academia, policy, international development and conservation organisations have contributed. WWF’s Living Planet Report 2022 shows the scale of the challenge – and highlights what we can do, both here in Australia and around the world, to change the way we live.
The future of the planet is in our hands.
Key findings from WWF’s Living Planet Report 2022 include:
Global wildlife populations fell by 69%, on average, between 1970 and 2018.
Australia continues to have the most mammal extinctions in the world. The report tells a disturbing story of continual decline of more than 1,100 wildlife populations in Australia due to pressures from climate change, habitat destruction and introduced predators.
Populations of sharks and rays have dropped by 71% worldwide over the last 50 years due to fishing practices.There has been a 64% reduction in Australian sea lion pups born each year in South and Western Australia.
The Pookila, formally known as the New Holland mouse has disappeared from the Great Otway National Park in Victoria.
Ruddy turnstones, a migratory shorebird, have not been seen in George Town, Tasmania, since June 2019.
Combined koala populations have plummeted by 50% over 20 years in Queensland, New South Wales and the Australian Capital Territory.
Globally, landuse change is still the biggest current threat to nature, destroying or fragmenting the natural habitats of many plant and animal species on land, in freshwater and in our oceans.
If we cannot limit global warming to 1.5°C, climate change will likely become the dominant cause of biodiversity loss in the coming decades.
The report details the importance of Indigenous leadership as key to taking care of our living planet. Associate Professor Bradley Moggridge, a proud Murri from the Kamilaroi Nation, a researcher in Indigenous Water Science, and a WWF-Australia Governor, contributed to the report, detailing the state of Indigenous land and water knowledge in Australia. He advised that Indigenous research methodologies continue to be limited due to government inaction and that we must bridge the gap to benefit all Australians.
There is still time to act to reverse biodiversity loss and secure a nature-positive world by 2030, but urgency is needed.
Australia must set strong nature laws, become a world leader in forest protection and climate action, and respect and acknowledge the stewardship of Indigenous Australians to care for Country. With the right conservation effort, commitment, investment and expertise, wildlife and wild places can be brought back from the brink.
The Living Planet Report includes the latest findings measured by the Living Planet Index, tracking 32,000 populations of 5,230 mammals, birds, amphibians, reptiles and fish from 1970-2018. This includes more than 1,100 populations in Australia.
Australia’s extinction crisis
1,800 of Australain animals and plants are at risk of extinction. Many iconic wildlife, including the east coast koala, Carnaby’s black cockatoo and northern quoll, are at risk of disappearing forever.
Help turn the tide on Australia’s extinction crisis by signing the petition to their leaders calling for stronger protection for our wildlife and the places they call home.
A second article, included here and copied at the bottom, describes research in Eastern Australia, which emphasises the mental health effects of their 2017 floods:
Flooding is devastating in every aspect: from property and infrastructure damage to loss of life and wider health impacts. As flooding becomes increasingly common for more people in a warming world, we look at its repercussions on human health.
Dadu district, Sindh province, Pakistan
People in a flooded Pakistani village scramble for food rations as they battle the downwash from an army helicopter delivering aid. These unprecedented floods affected approximately 20 million people and destroyed homes, crops and infrastructure, leaving millions vulnerable to malnutrition and waterborne disease such as cholera. Estimates of the total number of people killed range from 1,200 to 2,200, while an estimated 14 million people were left homeless.
The Pakistan floods of 2010 were the result of record monsoon rainfall. As our planet continues to change in ways that are unprecedented in human history, the direct threat to health becomes increasingly urgent. We need to better understand how different populations are affected by climate change so that we can take the necessary actions to protect human health.
Credit: Daniel Berehulak, Getty Images / Wellcome Photography Prize 2019
Licence: Attribution, Non-Commercial, No Derivative Works CC BY-NC-ND
The kinds of health risks any given community might experience, the severity of them, and just how vulnerable they might be can differ depending on various factors. Geography, population size and density as well as levels of preparedness and resilience are part of it. The flood’s characteristics also play into this, whether it’s flash floods, coastal floods, riverine floods, or permanent floods for low-lying areas.
Floods can directly and indirectly affect human health in both the short and long term. Additionally, it’s not just communities who have experienced flooding whose health is at risk. Disaster responders, healthcare professionals and critical service providers can also be affected.
Drowning is often top of mind when it comes to health risks of flooding. But the risks can range from injuries, hypothermia and animal bites to infectious diseases, undernutrition and mental health problems.
When disasters like floods strike, there is a lot of focus on economic impact and property damage, as well as human casualties. But these also overlap with health concerns in many ways.
Flooding can strain health services due to damaged infrastructure, loss of health professionals and access to medicine, which could delay care or treatment for those who need it.
The economic fallout or loss of possessions and livelihoods due to a flooding disaster can result in financial uncertainty that may affect mental health, to say nothing of the grief from losing loved ones.
Below is an overview of common flooding related health impacts.
Diseases
Diseases and outbreaks are another major health concern in the event of flooding.
These can come in the form of waterborne diseases, which are those that come from drinking or coming into contact with contaminated water. These can include diarrhoea, cholera, typhoid fever and leptospirosis.
It can also sometimes be vector-borne diseases, which come from an intermediate species carrying the disease pathogen like a mosquito. Vector-borne diseases that come about from flooding include dengue fever and malaria.
Flooding increases the risk of these diseases and potential outbreaks in populations because it can cause sewage overflow as well as damage to water supply and sanitation facilities. Contamination of drinking water can lead to typhoid fever, cholera and hepatitis A.
In areas at risk of coastal flooding, there’s also the possibility of salt-water intrusion to drinking water as well as hypertension and eclampsia.
Once floodwaters have receded, stagnant water left behind in gardens, parts of the home or even farming lands can become a breeding ground for mosquitoes and lead to diseases like dengue or malaria.
Bangladesh had its worst dengue outbreak in 2019, with over 100,000 cases and 179 deaths. The outbreak was attributed to flooding in that year’s monsoon season.
Additionally, displacement and eventual overcrowding in evacuation centres can bring about other issues such as pulmonary and systemic fungal infections from moulds. According to the European Climate and Health Observatory, people that have evacuated to temporary shelters are more likely to be exposed to infectious diseases and pathogens, so are “more prone” to health problems.
Injuries can also potentially lead to infections or diseases such as leptospirosis, a disease that spreads through water contaminated with rodent urine coming into contact with the skin.
In the Philippines – the third most vulnerable country to natural hazards and among the most at risk from climate change – there have been increases in leptospirosis, typhoid fever and dengue after heavy rainfall and flooding.
Undernutrition or malnutrition
Though rarely considered, despite evidence for it, undernutrition or malnutrition is another health impact that can result from flooding disasters. Victims have been known to eat less during or after flooding, and often lose access to regular food supplies.
Food systems such as agriculture can also be significantly disrupted because of flooding. This can affect both the quantity and quality of food available and lead to food insecurity and undernutrition.
In parts of South Sudan, flooding in the last three years led to the displacement of hundreds of thousands of people with many resorting to eating wild food such as water lilies owing to the loss of crops and livestock as food sources. Around 2.5 million people were estimated to be at risk of severe food insecurity.
The 2017 floods in Australia’s New South Wales has left the state facing a potential epidemic of mental health problems, say researchers. They’re urging the government to support long-term mental health and community services for flood-affected residents.
Thousands of households were displaced by floods which left them highly vulnerable to mental health problems, said Professor James Bennett-Levy, co-author of a recent study led by the University Centre for Rural Health. Marginalized communities, including people living with disabilities and their care providers, were found to be particularly at risk, reports Prevention Web.
People who remained displaced six months after the floods had double the probability of reporting continuing distress and symptoms of post-traumatic stress, anxiety, and depression compared to those who were briefly displaced.
Noting that extreme weather events disproportionately affect those least equipped to weather them, senior researcher Dr. Veronica Matthews said the 2017 Northern Rivers flood event was no different. “The majority of people directly affected in flooded areas came from the lowest socio-economic groups,” she said. In the Lismore township, located in the northeast corner of NSW, a whopping 82% of flood victims came from such groups, which include the poor, the Indigenous, and the disabled.
University Centre researcher Jodie Bailie added that disabled people and their care providers were “more likely than others to have their home flooded, be evacuated, and experience lengthy displacement”, making crucial health care and social services difficult to access for them.
People with disabilities “will take longer to recover from weather-related disasters and require longer-term tailored supports during that period,” said Baile, urging policy-makers to “intentionally resource disabled people’s organizations to enable person-centred emergency preparedness tailored to people’s local flood risk, living situation, and other support needs, to increase choice and control during recovery.”
Such a move is long overdue, she said, noting that the current vulnerability of the disabled and their caregivers “is further increased because they have not been systematically included in community-level disaster preparedness.”
Adding to the distress of those displaced is the increased possibility of contracting a mosquito-borne disease like the Ross River and Barmah Forest viruses, which can cause debilitating joint pain, fatigue, and other symptoms for weeks after infection.
Mathematical modeling by the University Centre for Rural Health found that the February 2019 flash flooding in Queensland unsettled mosquito habitat, leading to peak viral infections about 90 days after the flood waters receded.
With their data on the mental health impacts of the 2017 floods in hand, the University Centre researchers are calling for disaster recovery programs to be funded and designed to support the longterm healing of communities, not just the acute needs that are apparent right after a natural disaster happens.
Keeping displacement times to a minimum, and actively nurturing feelings of engagement and support in communities—especially for those traditionally marginalized—will be critical.
The researchers also recommended rapid resolution of insurance claims, noting that disputes or denials were clearly linked with “ongoing distress and depression.”
”This year, 2022, there have been even more severe floods in Eastern Australia, with flooding occurring in areas that have never been flooded before. Many people have been displaced, including my brother (87), who has lost all of his possessions and is still unable to return to his home 3 months after the flooding occurred.
It was hoped that the Australia premier would acknowledge that climate change is a reality and stop promoting the coal industry in Australia, See other blogs about this on this site. However, the Australian public showed him the door in their recent elections, voting in a coalition who campaigned on climate change issues.
The Australian government is accused of covering up the impact of the climate crisis and suppressing the work of scientists yesterday as it seeks to amend the country’s environmental legislation. A report by the Ecological Society of Australia found that scientists are routinely blocked from publishing results of their studies and warn that changes are made to their findings before their work is released. It found that half the government scientists and nearly 40 per cent of those working in industry had been blocked from releasing or discussing their findings.
Abstract Suppressing expert knowledge can hide environmentally damaging practices and policies from public scrutiny. We surveyed ecologists and conservation scientists from universities, government, and industry across Australia to understand the prevalence and consequences of suppressing science communication. Government (34%) and industry (30%) respondents reported higher rates of undue interference by employers than did university respondents (5%). Internal communications (29%) and media (28%) were curtailed most, followed by journal articles (11%), and presentations (12%). When university and industry researchers avoided public commentary, this was mainly for fear of media misrepresentation, while government employees were most often constrained by senior management and workplace policy. One third of respondents reported personal suffering related to suppression, including job losses and deteriorating mental health. Substantial reforms are needed, including to codes of practice, and governance of environmental assessments and research, so that scientific advice can be reported openly, in a timely manner and free from interference.
As our hearts go out to the people of Australia, as they battle with unprecedented and devastating fires across the country, with lives lost, as well as homes and a billion of their unique marsupial and other wildlife species being burnt to death, I have to ask the question:
Is this one of the first of many such events that we are going to witness over the next decades? Is this going to be the face of the effects of climate change in the future? Are we going to witness even more harrowing events and deaths across the world?
Photographs from Australia during the fires in recent weeks
Animals that survive the fires, like this wombat pictured in New South Wales, will struggle to find food and shelter
How much more dreadful is it going to become globally, as we see multiple fires, floods, hurricanes, monsoons, high temperatures, coastal erosion and mass loss of species? Ecologists are already saying that they fear two rare species (found only on Kangaroo Island, to the south of Australia), may have been wiped out in the recent fires. These include a small mouse-like marsupial, called a dunnart, and glossy black cockatoos. See:
An article in Nature, by an Australian ecologist Michael Clarke, describes the aftermath of such terrible fires. He says,
“It is deathly silent when you go into a forest after a fire. Apart from the ‘undertakers’ — the carrion eaters like currawongs, ravens and shrike-thrushes — picking off the dead bodies, there’s nothing much left in the forest. It’s a chilling experience.
For survivors, it’s a perilous existence in the months that follow. Any animal that manages to make it through the fire uninjured faces three major challenges. One is finding shelter from climatic extremes — places they can hide from bad weather, like a hollow tree or a hole in the ground. The second is the risk of starvation. And third, they’ve got to avoid predators like feral cats and foxes. They’re exposed; there’s nowhere to hide in a barren landscape.
Even if an animal makes it to an unburnt patch, the density of organisms trying to eke out a living will be way beyond the area’s carrying capacity. After fires in 2007, one unburnt patch I visited in the Mallee [a region in the far north of Victoria] was literally crawling with birds, all chasing one another, trying to work out who owned the last little bit of turf. It was clearly insufficient to sustain them all.
Animals like koalas that live above ground in small, isolated populations and that have a limited capacity to flee or discover unburnt patches of forest are in all sorts of trouble. During past fires, we’ve seen some really surprising creative behaviours, like lyrebirds and wallabies going down wombat burrows to escape fire. But a large majority of animals are simply incinerated. Even really big, fast-flying birds like falcons and crimson rosellas can succumb to fire.
Some animals are more resilient to fire than others. The best adapted are those that can get underground. Termite colonies happily hum along underneath these all-consuming fires. Burrow-dwelling lizards are similar.”
Australia is not alone in facing wildfires. In 2018, a similar thing happened in California. The 2018 wildfire season was the deadliest and most destructive wildfire season ever recorded in California, with a total of 8,527 fires burning an area of 1,893,913 acres (766,439 ha), the largest area of burned acreage recorded in a fire season, according to the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection (Cal Fire) and the National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC), as of December 21. Through to the end of August 2018, Cal Fire alone spent $432 million on operations. As of May 2019, insurance claims related to this fire season had reached $12 billion, most related to the Camp Fire, in Butte County (see Wikipedia). And wildfires happened in Europe too.
In India, from June to September 2019, the country received the highest amount of monsoonal rain in the past 25 years. According to the India Meteorological Department, those rains are not expected to retreat until at least October 10th, which would be the latest withdrawal of the monsoon in the country’s recorded history.
2019 monsoon flooding in India
According to Wikepedia, climate change in China is having major effects on the economy, society and the environment. The energy structure and human activities caused global warming and climate change, and China suffered from negative effects of global warming in agriculture, forestry and water resources.
Photograph taken in Beijing, China, where smog pollution reaches 24 times the WHO recommended safe level and children are kept from attending school as a result.
I have chosen to mention these three countries – Australia, India and China – because they were exempted from the UN Kyoto Protocol agreement, because at that time, they pleaded that they were only just beginning to industrialise and needed to be given a chance to compete with industrialised countries. This chance was given and, now, they have become amongst the highest polluting countries in the world, with China in the lead, despite its intentions to tackle climate change. Ironic, isn’t it?
It’s easy to criticise with hindsight but I believe the UNFCCC should have had the confidence to stand firm over the Kyoto Protocol. Because of this, many countries (including the USA – another high polluter) did not ratify it.
I came across an interesting graph a few months ago, which shows that carbon emissions have continued to climb, despite UN efforts and agreements: Rio, Kyoto and Paris and beyond. The dates of these initiatives is marked on an ever-upwardly climbing graph of global carbon emissions.
But, to get back to my first question. Are the Australian bushfires, and subsequent losses, a portent of what is to come? Are even more horrifying disasters awaiting the global population in the future?
Australian climate scientist, Joelle Gergis, thinks that we have reached a tipping point. He comments in The Guardian:
“As I’ve watched the events of this summer unfolding, I’ve found myself wondering whether the Earth system has now breached a tipping point, an irreversible shift in the stability of the planetary system.
There may now be so much heat trapped in the system that we may have already triggered a domino effect that could unleash a cascade of abrupt changes that will continue to play out in the years and decades to come.
Rapid climate change has the potential to reconfigure life on the planet as we know it.
Many people think that we will be facing food scarcity (which is already manifesting in Africa) in the UK, and this could well happen, as we are nowhere near 100% sustainable in the UK for meeting all our food needs, as 46% of our food is still imported.”
However, I believe that global warming and climate change will have multiple effects across the world; some of it will be related to food scarcity but the other effects will be more random: fires, floods, hurricanes, heat stroke, coastal erosion and the loss of islands, as well as land in low-lying countries. And, of course, the disappearance of many iconic species of wildlife. And, as a Biologist and an animal lover, I feel enormous grief over this devastating loss – and I know that I am not the only one.
Unless huge co-operative efforts are made to limit the burning of fossil fuels, the future looks bleak for all of us, including some of the wonderful and unique species with whom we share this planet. If we are seeing these effects with just 1 degree of global warming, what will it be like at 1.5 degrees, 2 degrees or even higher? Three degrees and above are predicted if carbon emissions do not start to fall in the very near future.
This post was written on Facebook by an Australian man, who grew up in Queensland in the 70s and 80s and now has a young family of his own.
I lived in Australia for three years during the early 60s and have returned for short visits in 1994 and 2010. On both occasions I found the country to be hotter and drier. This last month my brother, who has lived in NSW most of his life, had his home threatened by bush fires for the very first time.
In an Australian first, chefs from more than 50 leading restaurants across Australia have pledged to no longer serve unsustainable seafood as part of the Australian Marine Conservation Society’s (AMCS) new GoodFish Project. All the restaurants have agreed not to source or serve seafood that is red-listed as “Say No” in Australia’s Sustainable Seafood Guide.
Ben Shewry, world renowned Australian chef and owner of the 20th best restaurant in the world, Attica, has come on board as GoodFish Ambassador. Ben has been a long time supporter of AMCS having first started using Australia’s Sustainable Seafood Guide some 10 years ago to guide his work.
“As chefs we have a moral responsibility, we need to understand the ingredients that we are cooking with, and no more so than what comes from the oceans.
In my position as a chef, I have a big influence on what people eat and what other people cook because our restaurant is well known. If I don’t have what I would call a clean menu – if I don’t have best practice, the most sustainable menu I can have in terms of shellfish and seafood – then I am contributing to the problem.” – Ben Shewry
As a chef myself, my aim through the GoodFish Project is to bring together the strong voices of the food industry to protect our oceans. Chefs and restaurants are highly influential in what people choose to eat these days. We care deeply about the sustainability of the ingredients we use. By changing the way we work with seafood, using Australia’s Sustainable Seafood Guide as a tool, we can speak directly to Australians about the health of the oceans.
This is just the beginning. Later this year we will be launching an all new GoodFish website, making it easy for you to find sustainable seafood restaurants in your area. You can help by encouraging your local restaurant to join the project, and by using Australia’s Sustainable Seafood Guide to make better choices every day. Together, our actions can take sustainable seafood into the mainstream, creating sustainable fisheries around Australia and protecting the oceans around us.
By working together, we can change the way that Australians think about seafood and improve the health of the oceans.
224 academics have written a letter to The Guardian in support of the children’s proposed non-attendance at school on Friday 15th February 2015. This is in response to a growing movement across the world by teenagers and children to draw attention of their governments to the need for emergency actions against climate change. Greta Thunberg from Sweden was the first to take such action (see an earlier blog).
Here is the letter in its entirety (of which I am one of the signatories):
“School climate strike children’s brave stand has our support
We are inspired that our children, spurred on by the noble actions of Greta Thunberg and other striking students, are making their voices heard, say 224 academics.
We, the undersigned academics, stand in solidarity with the children going on school climate strike on 15 February, and with all those taking a stand for the future of the planet.
Nelson Mandela once said: “Our children are our greatest treasure. They are our future. Those who abuse them tear at the fabric of our society and weaken our nation.” Human planetary abuse is, in a very real sense, child neglect.
As many of us and other fellow academics have indicated previously in this newspaper (Letters, 27 October 2018), the scientific evidence of climate change is clear. For example, the summer of 2018 has been confirmed by the Meteorological Office as the hottest on record for England. The heatwave adversely affected crops across Europe, with wheat and potato harvests reduced by one quarter, which in turn impacted upon food prices. Australia is similarly experiencing “hottest on record” weather events. As citizens across the globe will know and testify, many comparably disturbing examples could be given. We cannot nurture our children without Nature.
It is with these tragic and desperate events in mind that we offer our full support to the students – some of whom may well aspire to be the academics of the future – who bravely plan to strike on 15 February to demand that the UK government takes climate action. They have every right to be angry about the future that we shall bequeath to them, if proportionate and urgent action is not taken. We are inspired that our children, spurred on by the noble actions of Greta Thunberg and many other striking students all around the world, are making their voices heard.
Alison Green, PhD (Psychology), National Director (UK) ScientistsWarning.org Sir Tim Smit Co-Founder, Eden Project & Exec Chair Eden Project International
Professor Kevin Anderson, Joint chair of Energy and Climate Change at Manchester and Uppsala Universities Professor Tony Watts OBE Molly Scott Cato MEP, Professor of Green Economics, University of Roehampton Chris Rapley CBE, Professor of Climate Science, UCL Professor T. R. Birkhead, FRS Department of Animal & Plant Sciences,
University of Sheffield Professor Joy Carter Vice-Chancellor, University of Winchester Professor Danny Dorling, School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford (UK) Professor Diane Reay, University of Cambridge Professor Guy Claxton, King’s College London Professor Rosalind Gill, UK Professor Jem Bendell, PhD, University of Cumbria Professor Marilyn Strathern, DBE Cambridge University Dr Anne Alexander, University of Cambridge Dr Miklós Antal, Research Fellow, University of Leeds Francisco Ascui (PhD, MBA, MSc), Centre for Business and Climate Change, University of Edinburgh Dr Hugues Azérad, Fellow and College Lecturer,Faculty of Modern and Medieval Languages, University of Cambridge Dr Keith Baker, co-founder, Energy Poverty Research initiative, Scotland Stephen J. Ball, distinguished service Professor of Sociology of Education, University College London Dr Meg-John Barker, Psychology in Social Sciences, The Open University Rocio Perez Barrales, School of Biological Sciences, University of Portsmouth Emeritus Professor Michael Bassey
Professor Margaret Bates, University of Northampton Manu Bazzano, Lecturer, University of Roehampton Professor David Beerling, Dept. Animal and Plant Sciences, University of Sheffield Peter Belton, Professor Emeritus of Chemistry, University of East Anglia Dr Teresa Belton visiting fellow, School of Education and Lifelong Learning, University of East Anglia Dr Nicholas Beuret, University of Essex Dr Simon Boxley, Centre for Climate Change Education & Communication, University of Winchester Dr Gail Bradbrook, co-founder of Extinction Rebellion Beth Breeze, Director, Centre for Philanthropy, University of Kent Delny Britton Ph.D. (env. Sci.), Stroud, Gloucestershire Dr Onel Brooks, Senior Lecturer in Psychotherapy, Counselling and Counselling Psychology Annemarieke de Bruin, Researcher, Stockholm Environment Institute, Department of Environment and Geography, University of York Erik Buitenhuis Ph.D., Ocean Biogeochemist Dr Catherine Burke, Reader in History of Education and Childhood, University of Cambridge Professor Erica Burman,Manchester Institute of Education, University of Manchester Dr Jonathan Busch, Research & Teaching Fellow, Sustainability Research Institute, University of Leeds Dr Rose Capdevila, School of Psychology, The Open University Dr Stuart Capstick, Research Fellow, Cardiff University Professor Andrew Challinor, Faculty of Environment, University of Leeds Professor Alec Charles, Dean of the Faculty of Arts, UoW Paul Chatterton, Professor of Urban Futures,School of Geography, University of Leeds Christopher Clarke, Emeritus Professor of Applied Mathematics, University of Southampton Isabel Clarke, consultant Clinical Psychologist, Southern Health NHS Foundation Trust Professor Linda Clarke, Centre for the Study of the Production of the Built Environment (ProBE), Westminster Business School, University of Westminster Richard Clarke, Visiting Scholar, University of Westminster Dr Christopher D. Coath, University of Bristol Frank Coffield, Emeritus Professor of Education, UCL Institute of Education, London University Dr Philip Connell, University of Cambridge Andrew Cooper, Professor of Social Work, Tavistock Centre and UEL Dr Mick Cooper, Counselling Psychologist Dr Alice Courvoisier, Ph.D.(Mathematics), lecturer, York University Nick Cowern, Emeritus Professor, Newcastle University Ed Craig, Executive Director Edinburgh Centre for Carbon Innovation, University of Edinburgh Gareth Dale, Politics/History, Brunel University Professor Colin Davis University of Bristol Dr Lucy Delap, Reader in Modern British and Gender History, Murray Edwards College, Cambridge Dr Peter Dwyer, UCU Branch Executive, Ruskin College, Oxford Dr Alison Dyke, Stockholm Environment Institute, Department of Environment and Geography, University of York Richard Eke Ph.D., Associate Lecturer in Education Professor Barbara Evans CEng MCIWEM, Co-Director, Centre for Global Development, University of Leeds Dr Nick Evans, Junior Research Fellow, Clare College, University of Cambridge Dr Keri Facer, Professor of Educational and Social Futures, University of Bristol Dr Andrew L. Fanning, Marie Curie Research Fellow, Sustainability Research Institute, University of Leeds Suman Fernando, Honorary Professor in the Faculty of Social Sciences & Humanities, London Metropolitan University; retired Consultant Psychiatrist Michael Fielding Emeritus Professor of Education, UCL Institute of Education, London Dr Keith Flett, London Socialist Historians Group, University of London Alistair Ford, Research Associate (Cities and Climate Change), Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research
Dr Katy Fox-Hodess, University of Sheffield Professor Lynn Froggett FAcSS Dr Christophe Gagne, Senior Language Teaching Officer in French, MML, University of Cambridge Charlie J. Gardner, PhD Lecturer, Conservation Biology Dr Simon Gibbs university Reader in Educational Psychology Ian Gibson Professor and former MP and chair, Select Committee on Science and Technology Simona Giordano, University of Manchester Dr Sara González, Associate Professor, School of Geography, University of Leeds Harvey Goldstein, Professor of Social Statistics, University of Bristol Professor Dave Goulson FRES,, School of Life Sciences, University of Sussex Dr Dina Glouberman Skyros Institute Dr Mia Gray, Dept of Geography, University of Cambridge Sarah Greenfield Clark, MSc (Sustainability), Partnerships Co-ordinator for Extinction
Rebellion Stephen Hall, University Academic Fellow, Sustainable Cities Dr Catherine Happer, Lecturer in Sociology Lukas Hardt, Postgraduate Research Student, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds Prof. Julie Harris, School of Psychology and Neuroscience, University of St. Andrews Rachael Harris PhD, University of Cambridge Stephan Harrison, Climate Scientist, Exeter University UK Dr Stephen Harwood, University of Edinburgh Business School Dr Karsten Haustein, Postdoctoral Researcher, Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford Peter Hawkins Ph.D. Professor of Leadership Henley Business School, University of Reading Dr Clare Heaviside, NERC Independent Research Fellow, University of Oxford Dr Jason Hickel, Goldsmiths, University of London Chris Hines MBE, Hon.D.Sc
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A report in The Observer (20.1.19) states that temperatures in the high 40s and edging up to 50°C are making it impossible to do much in sweltering Australia. So far, the highest record daytime temperature is 49.1°C in Tacoolain South Australia. Most people are staying indoors, as handling tools can burn hands, and letting their dogs outside can lead to blistered feet. The road surfaces are also melting.
It is hot in the night time too, with record highs every single night of one week in January 2019. Last week, there were reports of millions of river fish dying, due to depletion of oxygen in the water (related to an algal bloom caused by the heat). The mass fish death has led to criticism about water management.
Dead fish along the Murray River
The Guardian published a piece about poor water management on 25th January 2019:
And now a terrible story of the mass deaths of wild horses in the centre of Australia. These are feral horses – Australian’s call them Brumbies – who have gone to a water hole in the extreme heat to drink but found it completely dry. See the following link for the story:
Australia, being in the southern hemisphere, is in the midst of its summer, whilst the northern hemisphere is facing a freezing winter. A colleague has suggested to me that Australia could be a kind of climate change testbed or warning. First masses of dead fish and now dead horses. Is this the face of things to come?
Let us hope that these awful scenes cause a change of mind by the Australian government so that they stop plans for allowing the mining of coal in Queensland.
More fish deaths – 30th January 2019
Locals around the Darling River were confronted with a sea of white, as dead fish carpeted the waters near the southeastern Outback town of Menindee.
Just weeks after up to a million were killed — with scientists pointing to low water and oxygen levels as well as possibly toxic algae — another mass death occurred in the key food growing region.
With temperatures expected to rise and no rain forecast, there remained a “high risk of further fish kills over the coming days and week,” officials said.
While the federal government has blamed the deaths on a severe drought, experts and locals say they stem from the systemic depletion and pollution of the river.
The inspectors added that the latest bout of kills were likely linked to “critically low levels of dissolved oxygen” caused by a sharp drop in temperatures after an extended period of hot weather.
January 31st 2019: Flying Foxes falling out of trees in Australia
Australia is in the midst of an unrelenting, record-smashing heat wave that has left temperature maps so red the country looks like it’s on fire.
The country has hit highs exceeding 120°F (49°C) during the day. And New South Wales set a new record for all of Australia last week when nighttime temperatures never fell below 96.6°F (35.9°C).
Australia’s fruit-eating bats cannot regulate their body temperature when the thermometer hits 104°F (40°C). Nursing females are vulnerable because they already have raised body temperatures. Young pups are the most vulnerable.
The picture above shows an Australian fruit bat (Flying fox) suffering from heat stress.
An article in the New Scientist (No.3161) by John Pickrell, entitled “Too hot to handle”, discusses the increasing trend of heatwaves throughout the world, as a result of climate change.
Pickrell starts by discussing Australia, which had a heatwave in January 2017, with the hottest ever recorded temperatures in Sydney and Brisbane (Sydney had over 47 degrees). Large parts of the country had temperatures over 40 degrees C for weeks on end, as well as bush fires. Many of the unique species of wildlife common to Australia had to be rescued from fires and heat, many of them suffering from heat exhaustion, burns, dehydration and stress.
Temperatures of 50 degrees C are predicted by 2040 for Australia.
Pickrell then goes on to cite papers, which give statistics about fatalities during heatwaves, one from The Lancet which covered research by 26 institutions (including the World Health Organization).
The 2003 heatwave in France killed 70,000 people – but it would appear that the level of humidity is the crucial factor, as high levels of water in the atmosphere can reduce the body’s ability to cool down through sweating. To sweat effectively, you must maintain your blood volume, so dehydration can cause heat stress, followed by heat stroke, multiple organ failure and possible death. The elderly and children are at greater risk of heat stroke, as well as those on medication or with heart disease.
I came across another wordpress website, which gives a useful chart showing temperature against relative humidity and which combinations are lethal:
The black crosses in the chart above show temperature and relative humidity during events that were lethal. The blue line shows the likely boundary between lethal and non-lethal events, and the red line is a 95% probability threshold.
According to The Lancet, global warming has reduced the workforce in India by 418,000.
An interesting map of the world is given in the New Scientist article to show the probability of deadly heatwaves for three global warming scenarios: 1.5 degrees C; 2 degrees C and 4 degrees C. This can be seen by clicking on the link below:
It shows that, even with an increase in global temperature of 2 degrees, many parts of the world will become uninhabitable, through rising temperatures: North West Africa, much of the Middle East, parts of Central and South America, India, Pakistan and Bangladesh and much of Australia. At four degrees the situation is dire throughout much of the tropical world.
The New Scientist article concludes with a list of advice on how to keep cool.
Another academic article on a similar subject has been published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Science USA by Sherwood and Huber in 2010 (Vol 107, (21), 9552-5) entitled “An adaptability limit to climate change due to heat stress.” This article has been summarised in the Science & Technology section of the The Observer (10th Sept. 2017).This article gives a chart showing which species die at particular degrees of warming above pre-industrial levels. Amphibians will be the first to go (at 0.6 degrees+), followed by penguins, due to loss of food sources, as the krill populations dwindle. At 1.6 degrees+, the wooded tundra is lost, along with its inhabitants, moose, lynx and brown bears, followed by large African mammals, such as elephants, then rain forest dwellers (orangutans, jaguars, sloths) at 2.6 degrees+. At a warming of 4 degrees, 70% of species would be extinct, coral reefs dead and deserts would expand across the world. The fate of humankind would be dominated by mass migration, on a scale even larger than we see today, with water resources extremely limited, as we would have to abandon most of the Earth or live underground. The authors predict that, by 2050, temperatures will be in a range that nobody has experienced before.
It is interesting to note that the Australian town of Coober Pedy, a major site for opal mining, has already built an underground town, including hotels, for those times in the year when it is already too hot to live above ground.
2nd August 2018
Since this post was first written, time has now moved on into 2018 with heatwaves across much of the northern hemisphere (see other posts on this site for details). Even climate sceptics are now beginning to accept that climate change is with us, with the extremes of weather which accompany it.
A piece this week in The Guardian by David Carrington deals with the issue of human survivability during heat waves. I quote a short passage from him, in which he summarises scientific work on the issue:
“The new analysis assesses the impact of climate change on the deadly combination of heat and humidity, which is measured as the “wet bulb” temperature (WBT). Once the WBT reaches 35C, the air is so hot and humid that the human body cannot cool itself by sweating and even fit people sitting in the shade die within six hours.
He then goes on to discuss which parts of the world are most at risk of high WBT temperatures. This would appear to be the north China plain, with a population of 400 million people, most of them farmers. The scientists who produced the data have predicted that by 2070 to 2100, this area of the world will become uninhabitable. Other areas at risk are the Middle East, around the Gulf (particularly Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Doha and the coastal cities of Iran) and parts of South Asia (around the Indus and Ganges valleys).
The UK has experienced another heatwave period this summer, with record temperatures being reached in a number of countries. It was particularly humid in the UK, with weather forecasters predicting the humidity above 50%, a level which can prove fatal with temperatures above 25ºC, according to the graph shown above.
So its worth looking again at the relationship between WBT (wet bulb temperature) and death due to heat stress. The following can be found in Wikipedia:
“Living organisms can survive only within a certain temperature range. When the ambient temperature is excessive, humans and many animals cool themselves below ambient by evaporative cooling (sweat in humans and horses, saliva and water in dogs and other mammals); this helps to prevent potentially fatal hyperthermia due to heat stress. The effectiveness of evaporative cooling depends upon humidity; wet-bulb temperature, or more complex calculated quantities such as Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) which also takes account of solar radiation, give a useful indication of the degree of heat stress, and are used by several agencies as the basis for heat stress prevention guidelines.
A sustained wet-bulb temperature exceeding 35 °C (95 °F) is likely to be fatal even to fit and healthy people, unclothed in the shade next to a fan; at this temperature our bodies switch from shedding heat to the environment, to gaining heat from it. Thus 35 °C (95 °F) is the threshold beyond which the body is no longer able to adequately cool itself. A study by NOAA from 2013 concluded that heat stress will reduce labour capacity considerably under current emissions scenarios.
A 2010 study concluded that under a worst-case scenario for global warming with temperatures 12 °C (22 °F) higher than 2007, the wet-bulb temperature limit for humans could be exceeded around much of the world in future centuries. A 2015 study concluded that parts of the globe could become uninhabitable. An example of the threshold at which the human body is no longer able to cool itself and begins to overheat is a humidity level of 50% and a high heat of 46 °C (115 °F), as this would indicate a wet-bulb temperature of 35 °C (95 °F).”
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